Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic. 32/32 Reporting

#	Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.	Chiefs	--	12-1	The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams.
2.	Packers	+2	10-3	There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess?
3.	Bills	+2	10-3	For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl."
4.	Saints	-1	10-3	This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule.
5.	Steelers	-3	11-2	The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight.
6.	Rams	--	9-4	Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game.
7.	Colts	+1	9-4	Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday.
8.	Titans	+1	9-4	Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games.
9.	Seahawks	+1	9-4	Nothing cures ~~suicidal thoughts~~ losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team.
10.	Ravens	+2	8-5	This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return.
11.	Browns	-4	9-4	Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game.
12.	Buccaneers	-1	8-5	The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round.
13.	Dolphins	--	8-5	There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon.
14.	Cardinals	+1	7-6	A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints.
15.	Raiders	-1	7-6	The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs.
16.	Washington FT	+3	6-7	Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker.
17.	Vikings	--	6-7	Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots.
18.	Bears	+5	6-7	The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards.
19.	Patriots	-3	6-7	Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets.
20.	49ers	-2	5-8	The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys.
21.	Broncos	+5	5-8	Drew Lock put up the third-highest passer rating in team history — behind a couple guys you may know. In the battle of 4-8's, the Broncos somehow managed to not blow a sizeable fourth-quarter lead and emerge victorious. Winning the game but losing The Hunt for a Better Draft Pick. Will the team remain in purgatory? Stay tuned.
22.	Giants	-2	5-8	It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right?
23.	Falcons	-1	4-9	Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league.
24.	Panthers	-3	4-9	I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY.
25.	Eagles	+3	4-8-1	Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu.
26.	Lions	-1	5-8	Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen
27.	Chargers	--	4-9	First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas.
28.	Texans	-4	4-9	The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week.
29.	Cowboys	--	4-9	The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario.
30.	Bengals	--	2-10-1	Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati.
31.	Jaguars	--	1-12	This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season.
32.	Jets	--	0-13	The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off.

Earl Thomas wanted to show an old friend how far he had come.
It was 2013, and a then-24-year-old Thomas patrolled the Seattle Seahawks' Legion of Boom secondary. The franchise was just weeks from its first Super Bowl championship, and Thomas had flown his high school coach, Texas state Hall of Famer Dan Hooks, and his wife to see the Seahawks' regular-season finale against the St. Louis Rams.
After the Seahawks breezed past the Rams, Hooks found himself at Thomas' house for dinner, surrounded by luxury. He overlooked lake waters as Nina Thomas, Earl's future wife, prepared a tender steak. After dinner, Thomas walked Hooks to his garage to check out the Lamborghini Murcielago. Hooks can't remember if the car was blue or white, but he definitely remembers the scissor doors and hand-stitched leather seats, a rare glimpse into a player he always considered a bit of an introvert.
Thomas stressed he never drove it through rain or mud.
Seven years later, Hooks wonders how Thomas -- a once-proud playmaker now unemployed after a rocky season with the Baltimore Ravens and well-publicized problems off the field -- is navigating those same conditions in his life.
"I was really surprised when he got off track like that," said Hooks, who coached Thomas at Orange-Stark High School. "As time went on, the image he represented became a little different. I don't know what happened. But he's a great kid and I wish him success."
After nearly $90 million in career earnings, seven Pro Bowls and three All-Pro selections, Thomas has played deep safety on a likely route to the Hall of Fame. But a series of bizarre events on and off the field late in his career have raised questions about a legacy coming apart at the seams, including:
He ended his Seattle career by flashing a middle finger at Pete Carroll on Sept. 30, 2018, after a leg injury and an acrimonious contract dispute.
He ended his Baltimore career with a punch, with teammates fed up with his act well before he fought safety Chuck Clark during a training camp practice on Aug. 21, 2020. Two days later, the Ravens cut him for conduct detrimental to the team.
In between, a well-publicized issue with his wife, Nina -- who was arrested April 13, 2020, for allegedly pointing a gun at Thomas over cheating suspicions, according to court records -- took the focus off football.
Now, Thomas is 31 and hopeful for one last chance to anchor a secondary. All season, the free agent has worked out five to six days per week with Jeremy Hills, a former University of Texas teammate who trains many NFL athletes out of Austin.
"He feels like he has so much more to prove," Hills said. "He'll show up ready whenever he gets the call."
Blake Gideon, a former University of Texas safety who shared the defensive backfield with Thomas, backs up that claim, saying Thomas conveyed in recent text messages that he "understands the position he's in and is eager" to correct it with another chance.
Many former teammates and coaches said the news stories about Thomas, who didn't respond to multiple attempts by ESPN to reach him, don't match the person they know: a quiet but loyal individual who doesn't trust others easily but cares deeply once walls are broken, with a rare football focus that some mistake for iciness.
That last part complicated Thomas' status in multiple locker rooms. His relentless pursuit of greatness could create a gulf that several former teammates didn't want to discuss on the record out of respect for Thomas' career.
As one longtime Seahawk put it, Thomas was "a lot like Kobe" in his competitive drive. Kobe Bryant evolved and was beloved when he retired in 2016. Will Thomas get his goodbye, or has the game said it for him?
Faith and family in Orange, Texas Just about everything a young Thomas did felt ordained.
His interest in music became not just a hobby, but a vessel for an entire church body, playing the drums and organ in the Sunday service band in Orange, Texas.
A quiet boy with a matching tie and vest helped get the congregation at Sixth Street Community Church off their seats. Sixth Street, located in Orange's east side -- which the church's Facebook page calls "devil's territory" because of crime and drugs in the area -- spread joy from a brown-brick building. Thomas' grandfather, Earl V. Thomas Sr., was the founding pastor, and uncle Anthony D. Thomas has taken over.
Raymond Richard, Thomas' teammate at Orange-Stark, said the boys were in church three nights per week, plus weekends. Services were "filled with the Holy Ghost -- shouting and spirits moving," he said, and though Thomas wasn't the animated type, he took pride in helping others celebrate God through music.
"Every instrument, he could play. He was just gifted like that," Richard said. "I think he just learned how to play by being around it."
Growing up in Orange -- nicknamed "Fruit City," sitting on the border of Texas and Louisiana with a population of about 11,000 -- Thomas cut grass with his dad on weekends. Locals knew Thomas as Debbie Thomas' "miracle baby," because doctors told her, a cancer survivor, she couldn't have kids. Instead, "God blessed her with a millionaire," Richard said.
Thomas became arguably Orange's best player since former Dallas Cowboy All-Pro cornerback Kevin Smith in the '80s. Thomas was a hybrid cornerback-running back who hated to come off the field. No tests, on the field or standardized, would stop his ascension.
High school teammate Depauldrick Garrett recalls Thomas' struggling with his SAT scores to qualify for the University of Texas. Before his last attempt at qualifying, Thomas told him on site, "If I pass this score, 'I'm going to the league.'"
"His focus level was just different," Garrett said. "He wanted to make a name for Orange, and he learned the value of hard work from his family."
Early signs of brilliance as a Longhorn In 2008, Gideon earned Texas' starting-safety role alongside Thomas, who for weeks hadn't said more than two words to him. So Gideon approached Thomas after a practice and asked if he had a problem.
"He said, 'Man, to be honest, where I come from, you're a white boy with a buzz cut, so I fill in the blank on what you think about me,'" Gideon recalled Thomas saying. "I told him, 'Hey, bro, that's not me. I grew up in a different part of the state, but I see how you play and how you work hard and I love you for that. I promise you, I want to play next to you and help you get where you want to be.
"From that point, we really trusted one another."
Thomas' hometown is rich in football tradition but familiar with racial tension, which ESPN highlighted in a 2017 feature on Thomas' roots. A 1993 Texas Monthly story highlighted the segregation problems in nearby Vidor. In 2016, a Bridge City High School official issued a public apology after two of its football players posted a meme of a West Orange-Stark player who was Black and a message including the N-word.
Richard believes racism isn't discernibly worse in Orange; it's everywhere.
"You've got a group that's always trying to keep things turned up in every town," said Cornel Thompson, a longtime football coach and West Orange-Stark's athletic director. "In Orange here, the thing that pulls everything together is football."
And the field was never a problem for Thomas, who proved undeniable from the moment he stepped onto the UT campus.
He wasn't afraid to let people know, either. Lamarr Houston, a UT teammate and eight-year NFL veteran with the then-Oakland Raiders and Chicago Bears, remembers Thomas, as a redshirt freshman, declaring in the locker room that he would start the following year.
Houston brushed him off with a, "Yeah, yeah, we'll see."
"We kind of got into it -- he was really serious," Houston said. "He was letting everybody know."
Colt McCoy -- the Texas QB in 2008 -- was struck by how a shy redshirt freshman would play an organ at a local church on Sundays, sometimes missing an involuntary workout as a result, then become a dominant force during nighttime 7-on-7 workouts in the summer. Thomas begged McCoy, who had the keys to the field gates, to continue one-on-one sessions with him covering McCoy's receivers, over and over, until midnight.
"He was going to be the best and nothing was going to get in his way," said McCoy, an 11-year NFL veteran now with the New York Giants.
Thomas backed up that confidence with raw talent, with some teammates calling him "Earl the Squirrel" because of elite quickness that led to 10 interceptions in two seasons.
Will Muschamp, Texas' defensive coordinator from 2008 to 2010, remembers doing double-takes watching practice film because of the extra reps Thomas took, the ground he constantly covered.
Muschamp was cleaning his house during the early months of the pandemic when his youngest son, Whit, came across a picture he drew years back of his favorite Longhorn, Thomas. Muschamp snapped a picture and texted it to Thomas, who replied: "Coach, that's awesome."
"As productive a football player I've ever been around," said Muschamp, a head coach at Florida and South Carolina over the past decade.
Seattle was a perfect fit -- until suddenly it wasn't Man, he had a different burst.
That was the prevailing theme from Seattle coaches after the first practices with Thomas, a first-round pick in 2010. Coaches measured safety speed by how one tracked the "red lines" -- numbers to numbers -- and no one owned the red lines like Thomas did.
New coach Pete Carroll needed a catalyst.
"We started constructing a defense around a middle-field safety, and that's what he was," said Rocky Seto, a longtime Seattle defensive assistant who left the profession a few years ago for Christian ministry. "He had a knack for getting the ball, and his range was phenomenal."
Seattle's personnel staff followed the Thomas pick with a pair of fifth-round selections -- hard-hitting safety Kam Chancellor (2010) and lanky corner Richard Sherman (2011) -- for a defensive foundation to fuel championship runs
Thomas was different in every way, eschewing the role of vocal leader for a get-like-me mentality that some teammates couldn't reach. One Seattle coach recalled Thomas chiding teammates for doing an extra film session because he assumed everyone already did that like him.
The work ethic reached maniacal levels. Multiple people interviewed for this story remember Thomas leaving his daughter's birthday party early to go watch film in another room. Former Seahawks corner DeShawn Shead was there for that moment. He was also there when Thomas angrily confronted defensive linemen for not carrying out assignments with intensity during a walk-through.
Thomas would balance contentious moments with invites for teammates to watch "Thursday Night Football" and play video games at his house.
"We know each other's family -- wives, kids, and on the field, we were there for each other," Shead said of Seattle's secondary.
Thomas' hero was Ed Reed, and Thomas wanted to "surpass Reed and beat him by a mile" in career accomplishments, said Kris Richard, Seattle's former defensive backs coach and defensive coordinator.
Thomas hasn't quite matched Reed's 64 interceptions, but Thomas' 30 is tops among safeties this past decade, with Sherman leading the way among active players, with 35. Chancellor was a generational hitter, and Sherman could erase the top receiver, but Thomas' versatility scared opposing coaches. His freelance moves were calculated, almost always based on film tips. Richard recalls a moment when a young Thomas sniffed out a toss play for Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles, put his foot in the ground and "leveled him out of bounds."
Richard had to manage a position room with three greats, which he admits meant "sparks would fly" with emotion on occasion.
One team source said Thomas had multiple heated confrontations with coaches, though Richard said he doesn't recall that, only a player of few words but much action.
"He wanted to be the greatest safety to ever play," Richard said. "For my entirety coaching him, he was always the glaring example of what to do and how to practice, the epitome of excellence."
That football immersion made him unapproachable at times. If someone isn't helping Thomas connect on the field, a team source said, then "he's an island."
But Seattle was the ideal place for a "keeps to himself" guy such as Thomas, Seto said. Seattle is unapologetically messy when it comes to players; coaches get to know them as people, business be damned, and if that muddles contract negotiations, at least players can't say the team doesn't care. Carroll is skilled at coalescing an amalgam of personalities and embracing differences. Seto had multiple talks with Thomas about the Bible and his relationship with Jesus Christ.
"He came in as a 19-year-old guy, almost out of high school, and we saw him in that way, nurtured him," Seto said. "If there were any quirks, we learned to appreciate that part of him. We all kind of came up together."
By 2018, Thomas was 29 and found himself on that island without two trusted anchors. Chancellor retired because of neck injuries, and Sherman was released after tearing his Achilles tendon. Both played roles in corralling Thomas when he appeared distant or indifferent.
Without them, Thomas appeared increasingly irritated to be in Seattle. Public demands for an extension or a trade before the 2018 season were unsuccessful, and as trainers carted Thomas off the field in Arizona in Week 4 -- with his lower left leg fractured, and his middle finger pointed to the Glendale sky -- one Seahawks source described the moment as "numbing," a finality to a relationship that felt over much earlier. People from Orange considered the gesture uncharacteristic of the church-organ-playing football player they knew.
Sherman declined to comment for this story through the 49ers, adding that he would talk only if Thomas talks; efforts to reach Chancellor were unsuccessful. The Seahawks did not make Carroll and general manager John Schneider available for this story.
"They were pillars who knew they could lean on each other," said Richard of Thomas and the Legion of Boom. "When you remove those pillars from his life, that affects you."
From Orange, Hooks sensed Thomas' desire to return home fueled unhappiness in Seattle.
"He wanted to go to Dallas, and when that didn't happen, maybe that changed things for him," Hooks said.
Why it didn't work with the Ravens The Baltimore Ravens are among the league's best at finding bargain contracts and developing draft picks into tough-minded players, which only fueled curiosity when then-new general manager Eric DeCosta gave Thomas a four-year, $55 million contract with $32 million in guarantees in March 2019.
Thomas, two months from age 30 at the time, was believed to have a one-year deal on the table from Kansas City, but his market wasn't exactly booming. The Ravens had moved on from Eric Weddle and, without a viable replacement in the system, figured Thomas' pedigree and range could strengthen the secondary against the Odell Beckhams of the AFC North.
The signing felt rushed -- and proved unsettling nearly as fast.
Within the first month of game action, Thomas initiated a heated argument with Brandon Williams over the defensive tackle's availability against the Cleveland Browns. Thomas' unreliability became a broader issue, as ESPN's Jamison Hensley reported, once he didn't show up for meetings following the bye after a Week 7 matchup with the Seahawks.
According to a report in The Athletic, Thomas took a private jet to Las Vegas straight from the game in Seattle instead of returning to Baltimore with the Ravens. Thomas was fined repeatedly for his indifference to game prep.
"It's one of the all-time mysteries why he didn't work in here, because it seemed on paper like he'd be the perfect Raven," said a team source. "This is a good locker room, but it didn't fit from the beginning."
Peak Thomas no longer showed on the game film from the 2019 season, but he still produced 47 tackles, two sacks, a forced fumble and two interceptions.
The team's handling of the fight with Clark in 2020 showed just how many strikes Thomas had used up. Thomas was gone within two days of punching Clark during a Friday training camp practice over a blown coverage, with the team essentially paying out $22 million for one season of work.
Coach John Harbaugh consulted prominent Ravens, who believed it was time to cut ties. After Thomas' release, the team declined to provide specifics publicly and privately, eager to move on despite owing him $10 million in guarantees in 2021, which is currently being sorted out by an NFLPA grievance.
Without making excuses for Thomas, several former Seahawks acknowledge that leaving Seattle's locker room is an adjustment for veterans. Several former and current Seahawks brought this up when discussing Thomas' problems. It's not that players can't be successful elsewhere -- Sherman became an All-Pro with San Francisco -- it's that they can take the culture for granted.
Outside linebacker Bruce Irvin has been vocal about this. He left Seattle in 2016 free agency and, after 30 sacks in five seasons elsewhere, he returned to the Seahawks because he missed the nuances -- how the team traveled, practiced and took care of older players.
"Seattle has energy, a positive environment, and they tailor a lot of their defense and offense to the players," Shead said. "It can be very different compared to the rest of the league. For some, when you got to other teams, it just gets to them."
Thomas' football career started to spiral as his personal life suffered in the public eye.
The Ravens were shocked by the April 13 incident in Austin, which resulted in Nina Thomas' arrest for first-degree felony burglary of a residence with intent to commit aggravated assault with a deadly weapon.
The details alleged in Travis County magistrate court records were jarring:
After finding Earl Thomas and his brother, Seth, in separate bedrooms of a rental home with separate women, Nina placed Earl's 9mm Beretta less than a foot away from her husband's head, with the safety disengaged and her finger on the trigger, all of which an officer viewed on cellphone video footage. Nina, accompanied by two women to help confront Thomas, told police she intended to scare Thomas but was unaware of a round in the chamber. Earl, who was not arrested, tussled for the gun, but police showed up at 3:41 a.m. with Nina allegedly chasing Earl with a knife. Thomas posted a since-deleted video urging people to pray instead of gossip, as "stuff like this happens."
Jonathan Goins, Nina's lawyer, told ESPN that Nina and Earl -- high school sweethearts who married in 2016 and have three children -- are reconciling.
"They are working on their marriage and doing what they have to do to make sure their three children are growing up in the best environment possible," Goins said.
Goins said he is expecting a dismissal of the case, which is currently being handled by the district attorney's office. He is working closely with Carl A. Moore, Earl Thomas' attorney, and Thomas has fully cooperated in the process.
Will Thomas get another chance? As a concerned friend, Gideon has sent encouraging texts to Thomas in recent months. He figured Thomas felt like the world was coming down on him, so he simply let him know he loved him. They had pleasant exchanges that Gideon would prefer to keep private.
"A lot of people were surprised with the issues that came to light because that was never him," Gideon said. "I don't see that as not having a great relationship with teammates in the locker room. The stuff back in Austin with his brother, that wasn't him."
According to Hills, his former teammate and trainer, Thomas has immersed himself in routine, working on his personal life and football craft without any guarantees of his career resuming.
Most days, Thomas wakes up early, jogs a mile to get loose, goes through a traditional weightlifting session (he needs to squat with the barbell across the back -- no body-weight sessions here), then it's on to conditioning and two-man offensive work, Hills said.
Hills classifies Thomas as being in "damn good shape," with speed of the NFL game the only thing they can't truly replicate in workouts. But when Hills can't find Thomas, he usually knows why.
"For the first time in a while, he has more time to be a dad," Hills said. "If he's not with me, he's probably in a bouncy house somewhere."
Family photos comprise much of Thomas' social media fare.
Thomas also has several posts that seem to promote the grand opening of Area 29 in Houston, which, according to the company's Instagram page, is the "hottest new international strip club featuring #1 dancers." Twenty-nine is Thomas' famous jersey number. ESPN left a message for a club official for comment on Thomas' involvement.
The Houston Texans appeared ready to sign Thomas in late September but backed away over concerns from the locker room, according to reporting by CBS Sports.
The Dallas Cowboys desperately needed secondary help yet didn't aggressively pursue Thomas. League sources said they believe the Cowboys once entertained signing Thomas for the league minimum, but those discussions never went very far.
Football can be cruel to aging veterans hoping to gracefully bow out. For every John Elway or Peyton Manning, there are dozens forced into retirement due to declining play.
But that's tough for Thomas, McCoy said, because of what he still can give.
"It's hard for anybody when someone tells you you can't play anymore -- it's even harder if you think you still can," McCoy said. "Hard thing to move on from. With Earl, I don't think that's what's going on. He can still play."
Richard also believes Thomas has "something left in the tank," because instincts and preparation will guide him.
Either way, a legacy awaits him in Orange, where for years he conducted a massive youth football camp. Providing a free camp to 1,000-plus kids was liberating for Thomas, who had to shake his hesitancy to speak publicly as a front-facing figure.
Thomas brought NFL peers to town and treated Orange "like Robin Hood" when it came to generosity for kids and family friends, said Derrick Scott, a former Texas strength coach who helps run the camp, which COVID-19 derailed in 2020.
"I see all this as Earl Thomas growing into the man he's going to be. I really believe he'll prevail," Scott said. "I believe his heart is in the right place. Things happen in life. I've seen his resiliency."
If Thomas doesn't get another NFL down, he has disciples to carry on his tradition -- and fiercely protect his legacy.
Any time Tennessee Titans safety Kenny Vaccaro breaks on a pass, he hopes his technique and angle to the ball would make Thomas proud.
The former UT teammate and friend can't be told any differently: Thomas revolutionized the free safety position because of his sideline-to-sideline range and anticipation.
That's why Thomas' current predicament deeply hurts him.
"Hall of Fame players like him should be able to go out on their own terms," Vaccaro said.

6-point Teasers

Continuing the great work of u/blackjack_counter
previous week 12 post
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong's strategy:

Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

It is not recommended to tease game totals
The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.
In the week 1 post, u/blackjack_counter did a mathematical dive into whether we should be playing games at exactly +3, whether home teams are more reliable than road teams, and whether the total of the game matters.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called "sweetheart" teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). It's not a very large sample size, but it might be worth keeping an eye on. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2019, I've decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Do not take sweetheart teasers on favorites.

Previous Results

There were 8 teams that fit our 6pt teaser criteria and they went 7-1.
There were 2 teams that fit our 10pt teaser criteria and they went 4-0.

The plays last week were:

Off-the-board spread	6 pt	10 pt
Detroit +3	Loss
Washington +2.5	Win	Win
New England +1.5	Win	Win
Cleveland -7.5	Win
Carolina +3	Win
Tennessee +3	Win
Miami -7.5	Win
Green Bay -8	Win

Based on the closing line at Bovada to determine which games qualify as Wong bets. Since u/blackjack_counter used Bovada's closing lines, I will continue to use it. You can verify these lines at sbrodds.com.
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. Including last week, the results since 2017 are listed below.

Teaser	Year	Spread	Record	Win %
6 pt	2017	+1½ thru +3	61-23	72.6%
6 pt	2018	+1½ thru +3	63-19	76.8%
6 pt	2019	+1½ thru +3	52-16	76.5%
6 pt	2020	+1½ thru +3	41-8	83.6%
6 pt	2017	-7½ thru -9	27-10	73.0%
6 pt	2018	-7½ thru -9	16-9	64.0%
6 pt	2019	-7½ thru -9	17-7	70.8%
6 pt	2020	-7½ thru -9	17-4	80.9%
10 pt	2017	+1½ thru +2½	22-1	95.7%
10 pt	2018	+1½ thru +2½	24-5	82.8%
10 pt	2019	+1½ thru +2½	23-4	85.2%
10 pt	2020	+1½ thru +2½	12-0	100.0%

Both the favorite and underdog teasers that match our criteria seem to have a very high win % compared to previous years. It will be interesting to see if that rate holds up by the end of the season. So far it has been a good year for these teasers.

This Week

For the purposes of tracking the results and staying consistent, I will continue to use Bovada's closing line.
As of Thursday morning, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:

Detroit +3
Las Vegas -8.5
Atlanta +3
Arizona +3
Green Bay -8.5
Pittsburgh -8.5

If you wanted to use Wong's additional criteria of games with a total of 49 points or less, all the above games match that criteria.

Looking through sportsdatabase, since 2017:
Detroit as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 7-3 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Raiders as a favorite between -7.5 to -9 points have been 1-0 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Atlanta as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 5-1 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Arizona as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 8-3 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Packers as a favorite between -7.5 to -9 points have been 3-1 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Pittsburgh as a favorite between -7.5 to -9 points have been 3-0-1 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49

It is unclear on where the final lines on sportsdatabase come from. If you did a similar query for +1.5 to +3 point underdogs 6pt teasers, you would see sportsdatabase have them at 42-7, where Bovada has it at 41-8 for this season. That is a better win rate than Bovada's final lines. I still think its useful to see historical stats on probably line averages across multiple sportsbooks. You could probably dig deeper for teams coming off wins or losses as well.

Regarding game totals < 49

The games with a total of 49 or less got brought up originally by u/blackjack_counter. In his week 1 post, he put:

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

Bet	Record
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3	176-58	75.2%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	142-45	75.9%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	44-14	75.9%

Bet	Record
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9	59-26	69.4%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	48-19	71.6%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	16-6	72.7%

I looked up the historical stats using sportsdatabase (which have final lines using an unknown source, u/blackjack_counter stats were from Bovada lines).
Since 2017, Underdogs +1.5 to +3 are 217-62-2 (77.8%)
Since 2017, Underdogs +1.5 to +3 and game total < 49 are 171-48-2 (78.1%)
Since 2017, Favorites -9 to -7.5 are 71-17-4 (80.7%)
Since 2017, Favorites -9 to -7.5 and game total < 49 are 60-15-3(80%)

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong's original criteria is home favorites):
Since 2017, Home Favorites -9 to -7.5 are 54-15-3 (78.3%)
Since 2017, Home Favorites -9 to -7.5 and game total < 49 are 45-14-2 (76.3%)

The game total doesn't seem to make a major difference, but Stanford Wong's original criteria is a game total < 49 points.

Round Robin of all matching games

There has been lots of questions and comments on how to bet these Wong teasers. I think there was some thought that doing a Round Robin of 2 or 3 team teasers of the matching games would be ideal. I am not convinced that makes sense.
For example, there are 6 matching in a certain week and only 1 team lost their tease. If you had done a round robin of 2 team teasers from those 6 matching games, you would have 15 possible teaser bets. In this scenario, if you had 5 out of 6 teams that won their tease, then you would be profitable. If only 4 out of 6 had won their tease, then you would have not broken even.
I think the recommendation is to pick and choose teams that match our criteria (and any other information you use to make an informed bet) and put those into a 2 or 3 team teaser bet.

Good Luck this week.

6-point Teasers

Thanks for following along with these posts for the entire season!

Continuing the great work of u/blackjack_counter
previous week 16 post
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong's strategy:

Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

Sweetheart Teasers

For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Do not take sweetheart teasers on favorites.

Previous Results

There were 7 teams that fit our 6pt teaser criteria and they went 4-3. Hopefully this week allows us to end the regular season on a high note. There were 2 teams that fit the 10pt teaser criteria and they went 2-0, continuing the hot run for the season.

The plays last week were:

Off-the-board spread	6 pt	10 pt
Las Vegas +3	Win
Houston -7.5	Loss
Denver +2	Win	Win
LA Rams +1.5	Loss	Win
Dallas +3	Win
Tennessee +3	Loss
Buffalo -7.5	Win

Teaser	Year	Spread	Record	Win %
6 pt	2017	+1½ thru +3	61-23	72.6%
6 pt	2018	+1½ thru +3	63-19	76.8%
6 pt	2019	+1½ thru +3	52-16	76.5%
6 pt	2020	+1½ thru +3	54-15	78.3%
6 pt	2017	-7½ thru -9	27-10	73.0%
6 pt	2018	-7½ thru -9	16-9	64.0%
6 pt	2019	-7½ thru -9	17-7	70.8%
6 pt	2020	-7½ thru -9	25-6	80.6%
10 pt	2017	+1½ thru +2½	22-1	95.7%
10 pt	2018	+1½ thru +2½	24-5	82.8%
10 pt	2019	+1½ thru +2½	23-4	85.2%
10 pt	2020	+1½ thru +2½	16-0	100.0%

We can see that the underdog teasers have fallen from their previous hot streak throughout most of the season. It's slightly above previous season's win %, but we'll have to see how this final week turns out. The favorite's teasers are still doing well at 80.6%. The 10pt sweetheart teasers are still undefeated. At the end of the season, I will have to dig into that a bit more and see what happened.
This season has been a decent success for teaser bets for me personally, I hope you are all having success as well

This Week

For the purposes of tracking the results and staying consistent, I will continue to use Bovada's closing line.
As of Thursday afternoon, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:

NY Giants +2
Cleveland -9
NY Jets +3
Miami +3
Tennessee -7.5
Denver +2.5
LA Rams +3
Philadelphia +1.5

If you wanted to use Wong's additional criteria of games with a total of 49 points or less, there are 6 games ( NY Giants, Cleveland, NY Jets, Miami, LA Rams, Philadelphia) that match the criteria.

Looking through sportsdatabase, since 2017:
NY Giants as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 4-5 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Cleveland as a favorite between -7.5 to -9 points have been 2-0 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
NY Jets as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 9-0 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Miami as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 5-2 as a 6pt teaser
Tennessee as a favorite between -7.5 to -9 points have been 5-0 as a 6pt teaser
Denver as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 10-0 as a 6pt teaser
LA Rams as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 2-2 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Philadelphia as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 5-1 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49

It is unclear on where the final lines on sportsdatabase come from. If you did a similar query for +1.5 to +3 point underdogs 6pt teasers, you would see sportsdatabase have them at 55-12, where Bovada has it at 54-15 for this season. That is a better win rate than Bovada's final lines. I still think its useful to see historical stats on probably line averages across multiple sportsbooks. You could probably dig deeper for teams coming off wins or losses as well.

Regarding game totals < 49

The games with a total of 49 or less got brought up originally by u/blackjack_counter. In his week 1 post, he put:

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

Bet	Record
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3	176-58	75.2%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	142-45	75.9%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	44-14	75.9%

Bet	Record
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9	59-26	69.4%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	48-19	71.6%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	16-6	72.7%

I looked up the historical stats using sportsdatabase (which have final lines using an unknown source, u/blackjack_counter stats were from Bovada lines).
Since 2017, Underdogs +1.5 to +3 are 230-67-2 (77.4%)
Since 2017, Underdogs +1.5 to +3 and game total < 49 are 181-52-2 (77.7%)
Since 2017, Favorites -9 to -7.5 are 80-18-4 (81.6%)
Since 2017, Favorites -9 to -7.5 and game total < 49 are 65-16-3 (80.2%)

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong's original criteria is home favorites):
Since 2017, Home Favorites -9 to -7.5 are 58-16-3 (78.4%)
Since 2017, Home Favorites -9 to -7.5 and game total < 49 are 47-15-2 (75.8%)

Round Robin of all matching games

6-point Teasers

Continuing the great work of u/blackjack_counter
previous week 15 post
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong's strategy:

Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

Sweetheart Teasers

For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Do not take sweetheart teasers on favorites.

Previous Results

There were 5 teams that fit our 6pt teaser criteria and they went 5-0. Maybe we are back on track to have a great year for teasers.

The plays last week were:

Off-the-board spread	6 pt	10 pt
LA Chargers +3	Win
Indianapolis -7.5	Win
Tennessee -8.5	Win
Chicago +3	Win
New Orleans +3	Win

Teaser	Year	Spread	Record	Win %
6 pt	2017	+1½ thru +3	61-23	72.6%
6 pt	2018	+1½ thru +3	63-19	76.8%
6 pt	2019	+1½ thru +3	52-16	76.5%
6 pt	2020	+1½ thru +3	51-13	79.7%
6 pt	2017	-7½ thru -9	27-10	73.0%
6 pt	2018	-7½ thru -9	16-9	64.0%
6 pt	2019	-7½ thru -9	17-7	70.8%
6 pt	2020	-7½ thru -9	24-5	82.8%
10 pt	2017	+1½ thru +2½	22-1	95.7%
10 pt	2018	+1½ thru +2½	24-5	82.8%
10 pt	2019	+1½ thru +2½	23-4	85.2%
10 pt	2020	+1½ thru +2½	16-0	100.0%

**This week we saw that the underdog teasers returned to their season hot streak. Hopefully this keeps up for the remaining weeks of the season. **

This Week

For the purposes of tracking the results and staying consistent, I will continue to use Bovada's closing line.
As of Thursday afternoon, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:

Las Vegas +3
Pittsburgh +1.5
Chicago -7.5
Carolina +1.5
Dallas +2.5
Tennessee +3
Houston -7.5

If you wanted to use Wong's additional criteria of games with a total of 49 points or less, there are 5 games ( Las Vegas, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Carolina, Houston) that match the criteria.

Looking through sportsdatabase, since 2017:
Las Vegas as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 6-4 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Pittsburgh as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 1-2 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Chicago as a favorite between -7.5 to -9 points has no data as a 6pt teaser
Carolina as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 6-0 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Dallas as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 3-4 as a 6pt teaser
Tennessee as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 6-4 as a 6pt teaser
Houston as a favorite between -7.5 to -9 points are 2-2 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49

It is unclear on where the final lines on sportsdatabase come from. If you did a similar query for +1.5 to +3 point underdogs 6pt teasers, you would see sportsdatabase have them at 51-11, where Bovada has it at 51-13 for this season. That is a slightly better win rate than Bovada's final lines. I still think its useful to see historical stats on probably line averages across multiple sportsbooks. You could probably dig deeper for teams coming off wins or losses as well.

Regarding game totals < 49

The games with a total of 49 or less got brought up originally by u/blackjack_counter. In his week 1 post, he put:

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

Bet	Record
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3	176-58	75.2%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	142-45	75.9%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	44-14	75.9%

Bet	Record
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9	59-26	69.4%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	48-19	71.6%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	16-6	72.7%

I looked up the historical stats using sportsdatabase (which have final lines using an unknown source, u/blackjack_counter stats were from Bovada lines).
Since 2017, Underdogs +1.5 to +3 are 226-66-2 (77.4%)
Since 2017, Underdogs +1.5 to +3 and game total < 49 are 179-51-2 (77.8%)
Since 2017, Favorites -9 to -7.5 are 78-18-4 (81.2%)
Since 2017, Favorites -9 to -7.5 and game total < 49 are 63-16-3 (79.7%)

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong's original criteria is home favorites):
Since 2017, Home Favorites -9 to -7.5 are 58-16-3 (78.4%)
Since 2017, Home Favorites -9 to -7.5 and game total < 49 are 47-15-2 (75.8%)

Round Robin of all matching games

6-point Teasers

Continuing the great work of u/blackjack_counter
previous week 13 post
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong's strategy:

Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

Sweetheart Teasers

For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Do not take sweetheart teasers on favorites.

Previous Results

There were 8 teams that fit our 6pt teaser criteria and they went 7-1.
There were 2 teams that fit our 10pt teaser criteria and they went 2-0.

The plays last week were:

Off-the-board spread	6 pt	10 pt
Detroit +3	Win
Las Vegas -7.5	Win
Atlanta +3	Win
Arizona +3	Loss
Green Bay -8.5	Win
New England +2	Win	Win
Buffalo +1.5	Win	Win
Baltimore -9	Win

Teaser	Year	Spread	Record	Win %
6 pt	2017	+1½ thru +3	61-23	72.6%
6 pt	2018	+1½ thru +3	63-19	76.8%
6 pt	2019	+1½ thru +3	52-16	76.5%
6 pt	2020	+1½ thru +3	45-9	83.3%
6 pt	2017	-7½ thru -9	27-10	73.0%
6 pt	2018	-7½ thru -9	16-9	64.0%
6 pt	2019	-7½ thru -9	17-7	70.8%
6 pt	2020	-7½ thru -9	20-4	80.9%
10 pt	2017	+1½ thru +2½	22-1	95.7%
10 pt	2018	+1½ thru +2½	24-5	82.8%
10 pt	2019	+1½ thru +2½	23-4	85.2%
10 pt	2020	+1½ thru +2½	14-0	100.0%

This Week

For the purposes of tracking the results and staying consistent, I will continue to use Bovada's closing line.
As of Thursday morning, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:

Tennessee -7.5
NY Giants +1.5
Chicago +1.5
Las Vegas +3
Green Bay -7.5
LA Chargers +2.5
Washington +3
Pittsburgh +2.5

If you wanted to use Wong's additional criteria of games with a total of 49 points or less, there are 4 games ( Giants, Chicago, Washington, Pittsburgh) that match the criteria.

Looking through sportsdatabase, since 2017:
Tennessee as a favorite between -7.5 to -9 points have been 4-0 as a 6pt teaser
NY Giants as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 4-4 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Chicago as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 10-0 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Las Vegas as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 8-4 as a 6pt teaser
Green Bay as a favorite between -7.5 to -9 points have been 3-1 as a 6pt teaser
LA Chargers as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 7-2 as a 6pt teaser
Washington as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 9-3-1 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Pittsburgh as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 1-1 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49

It is unclear on where the final lines on sportsdatabase come from. If you did a similar query for +1.5 to +3 point underdogs 6pt teasers, you would see sportsdatabase have them at 44-8, where Bovada has it at 45-9 for this season. That is a slightly better win rate than Bovada's final lines. I still think its useful to see historical stats on probably line averages across multiple sportsbooks. You could probably dig deeper for teams coming off wins or losses as well.

Regarding game totals < 49

The games with a total of 49 or less got brought up originally by u/blackjack_counter. In his week 1 post, he put:

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

Bet	Record
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3	176-58	75.2%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	142-45	75.9%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	44-14	75.9%

Bet	Record
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9	59-26	69.4%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	48-19	71.6%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	16-6	72.7%

I looked up the historical stats using sportsdatabase (which have final lines using an unknown source, u/blackjack_counter stats were from Bovada lines).
Since 2017, Underdogs +1.5 to +3 are 219-63-2 (77.7%)
Since 2017, Underdogs +1.5 to +3 and game total < 49 are 173-49-2 (77.9%)
Since 2017, Favorites -9 to -7.5 are 74-18-4 (80.4%)
Since 2017, Favorites -9 to -7.5 and game total < 49 are 63-16-3 (79.7%)

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong's original criteria is home favorites):
Since 2017, Home Favorites -9 to -7.5 are 56-16-3 (77.8%)
Since 2017, Home Favorites -9 to -7.5 and game total < 49 are 47-15-2 (75.8%)

The game total doesn't seem to make a major difference, but Stanford Wong's original criteria is a game total < 49 points.

Round Robin of all matching games

6-point Teasers

Continuing the great work of u/blackjack_counter
previous week 14 post
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong's strategy:

Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

Sweetheart Teasers

For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Do not take sweetheart teasers on favorites.

Previous Results

There were 10 teams that fit our 6pt teaser criteria and they went 5-5. These teasers have been successful so far this season, it was time to regress back.
There were 2 teams that fit our 10pt teaser criteria and they went 2-0.

The plays last week were:

Off-the-board spread	6 pt	10 pt
Tennessee -8	Win
Cincinnati +3	Loss
NY Giants +3	Loss
Chicago +1.5	Win	Win
Kansas City -7.5	Win
Las Vegas +3	Loss
New Orleans -8	Loss
Wahington +3	Win
Pittsburgh +2	Loss	Win
Cleveland +3	Win

Teaser	Year	Spread	Record	Win %
6 pt	2017	+1½ thru +3	61-23	72.6%
6 pt	2018	+1½ thru +3	63-19	76.8%
6 pt	2019	+1½ thru +3	52-16	76.5%
6 pt	2020	+1½ thru +3	48-13	78.7%
6 pt	2017	-7½ thru -9	27-10	73.0%
6 pt	2018	-7½ thru -9	16-9	64.0%
6 pt	2019	-7½ thru -9	17-7	70.8%
6 pt	2020	-7½ thru -9	22-5	81.5%
10 pt	2017	+1½ thru +2½	22-1	95.7%
10 pt	2018	+1½ thru +2½	24-5	82.8%
10 pt	2019	+1½ thru +2½	23-4	85.2%
10 pt	2020	+1½ thru +2½	16-0	100.0%

**This week we finally see that the underdog teasers fall back down to match previous seasons. Hopefully things turn around but I think its a good sign to be more cautious with underdog teasers. **

This Week

For the purposes of tracking the results and staying consistent, I will continue to use Bovada's closing line.
As of Thursday afternoon, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:

Green Bay -8.5
Indianapolis -7.5
New England +1.5
Chicago +3
Dallas +3
New Orleans +3

If you wanted to use Wong's additional criteria of games with a total of 49 points or less, there are 3 games ( New England, Chicago, Dallas) that match the criteria.

Looking through sportsdatabase, since 2017:
Tennessee as a favorite between -7.5 to -9 points have been 4-1 as a 6pt teaser
Indianapolis as a favorite between -7.5 to -9 points have been 3-0 as a 6pt teaser
New England as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 1-0 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Chicago as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 11-0 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Dallas as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 2-3 as a 6pt teaser and toal < 49
New Orleans as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 5-1 as a 6pt teaser

It is unclear on where the final lines on sportsdatabase come from. If you did a similar query for +1.5 to +3 point underdogs 6pt teasers, you would see sportsdatabase have them at 48-11, where Bovada has it at 48-13 for this season. That is a slightly better win rate than Bovada's final lines. I still think its useful to see historical stats on probably line averages across multiple sportsbooks. You could probably dig deeper for teams coming off wins or losses as well.

Regarding game totals < 49

The games with a total of 49 or less got brought up originally by u/blackjack_counter. In his week 1 post, he put:

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

Bet	Record
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3	176-58	75.2%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	142-45	75.9%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	44-14	75.9%

Bet	Record
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9	59-26	69.4%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	48-19	71.6%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	16-6	72.7%

I looked up the historical stats using sportsdatabase (which have final lines using an unknown source, u/blackjack_counter stats were from Bovada lines).
Since 2017, Underdogs +1.5 to +3 are 223-66-2 (77.2%)
Since 2017, Underdogs +1.5 to +3 and game total < 49 are 177-51-2 (77.6%)
Since 2017, Favorites -9 to -7.5 are 76-18-4 (80.9%)
Since 2017, Favorites -9 to -7.5 and game total < 49 are 63-16-3 (79.7%)

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong's original criteria is home favorites):
Since 2017, Home Favorites -9 to -7.5 are 56-16-3 (77.8%)
Since 2017, Home Favorites -9 to -7.5 and game total < 49 are 47-15-2 (75.8%)

The game total doesn't seem to make a major difference, but Stanford Wong's original criteria is a game total < 49 points.

Round Robin of all matching games

Hey Bucs fans! We analyzed all the picks made from the sports media industry. Here’s what the experts at outlets like ESPN, The Athletic, and NBC have for the game:
Vegas Odds:

Money line: GB -185 (64.9% implied win probability)
Spread: GB -3.5
OveUnder: 52 points

Media Consensus:

80% of analysts picked the Packers to win straight up
68% pick GB to cover the spread
70% pick OVER 52 points

Notable analyst take:

Rob Demovsky, ESPN “If there has been anything to gripe about in Matt LaFleur's highly successful two-year run as the Packers' coach, perhaps it is being a step slow to adjust. When these teams met in Week 6, the Bucs played zone coverage on 61% of quarterback Aaron Rodgers' dropbacks, and Rodgers had his only multi-interception game this season. And in general, the more teams have played zone against Rodgers over the past two years, the better they have fared. LaFleur and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett know what's coming in terms of coverage, and how they plan for it will dictate their level of success against a tough Tampa Bay defense."

All media picks & analysis
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Hey Packers fans! Good luck today. Wanted to share our analysis on all the picks made from the sports media industry. Here’s what the experts at outlets like ESPN, The Athletic, and SI have for the game:
Vegas Odds:

Money line: GB -185 (64.9% implied win probability)
Spread: GB -3.5
OveUnder: 52 points

Media Consensus:

80% of analysts picked the Packers to win straight up
68% pick GB to cover the spread
70% pick OVER 52 points

Notable analyst take:

Rob Demovsky, ESPN “If there has been anything to gripe about in Matt LaFleur's highly successful two-year run as the Packers' coach, perhaps it is being a step slow to adjust. When these teams met in Week 6, the Bucs played zone coverage on 61% of quarterback Aaron Rodgers' dropbacks, and Rodgers had his only multi-interception game this season. And in general, the more teams have played zone against Rodgers over the past two years, the better they have fared. LaFleur and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett know what's coming in terms of coverage, and how they plan for it will dictate their level of success against a tough Tampa Bay defense."

All media picks & analysis
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6-point Teasers

Continuing the great work of u/blackjack_counter
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong's strategy:

Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.
In the week 1 post, u/blackjack_counter did a mathematical dive into whether we should be playing games at exactly +3, whether home teams are more reliable than road teams, and whether the total of the game matters.

Sweetheard Teasers

For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Do not take sweetheart teasers on favorites.

Previous Results

The plays last week were:

Off-the-board spread	6 pt	10 pt
Chicago +1.5	Win	Win
Washington +1.5	Win	Win
Miami -8.5	Win
Indianapolis -7.5	Win
Jacksonville +3	Loss
Tampa Bay +3	Win
San Francisco +3	Win
New England -7.5	Loss

Teaser	Year	Spread	Record	Win %
6 pt	2017	+1½ thru +3	61-23	72.6%
6 pt	2018	+1½ thru +3	63-19	76.8%
6 pt	2019	+1½ thru +3	52-16	76.5%
6 pt	2020	+1½ thru +3	21-3	87.5%
6 pt	2017	-7½ thru -9	27-10	73.0%
6 pt	2018	-7½ thru -9	16-9	64.0%
6 pt	2019	-7½ thru -9	17-7	70.8%
6 pt	2020	-7½ thru -9	12-4	75.0%
10 pt	2017	+1½ thru +2½	22-1	95.7%
10 pt	2018	+1½ thru +2½	24-5	82.8%
10 pt	2019	+1½ thru +2½	23-4	85.2%
10 pt	2020	+1½ thru +2½	5-0	100.0%

This Week

For the purposes of tracking the results, I remain steadfast in using Bovada's closing line.
At midweek, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week was:

Detroit +2

New Orleans -7.5

Houston +3

Tennessee +1.5

San Francisco +2

L.A. Chargers -7.5

Las Vegas +3

By Sunday morning the games on Bovada that fit the Wong Teaser criteria are:
Houston +3
San Francisco +3
LA Chargers -7.5
Looking through sportsdatabase, since 2017:
Houston is 3-0 as a 6pt teaser when they have a line of +3
San Francisco as a 6pt teaser is 3-1 (75%) as +3 underdog
LA Chargers as a 6pt teaser is 1-0 as an -7.5 favorite (small sample) If you expand it to -7.5 through -9 they are 2-0. Still a small sample

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Football is back, baby! After an awesome first week of NFL action, which I watched every full game of, I wanted to kind of recap all 16 matchups and come up with three statements for each one. Some of them may be more hyperbolic or could be labelled as hot takes, while others state for obvious facts. You can also listen to my Youtube breakdown of week one, where I just give more of my general thoughts on all these games, while also bringing up some of the points I make in this article.
So here’s what I took away from week one:

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs

1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire makes this KC offense unfair
This physicality and ability to break tackles is scary, when you think about how dynamic the Chiefs are with Patrick Mahomes and all those guys streaking downfield. I like what I saw from the offensive line, with Kelechi Osemele adding some power on the inside, but 106 of 138 rushing yards for CEH came after contact. No other player in the league even cracked 100 rushing in general. And he didn’t even get any work in the passing game yet, where I believe he could be even more dangerous, as defenses have to back off and then try to bring this bowling ball to the ground. Thank god I have him in all my fantasy leagues and as my favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
2. Will Fuller is the clear number one option in the passing game for Houston
With DeAndre Hopkins out of the picture, 150 targets were all of a sudden on the table and “The Flying V” (thanks Fantasy Footballers) should take on the lion’s share of that amount. In the season-opener, the fourth-year receiver caught eight of ten targets on the night for 112 yards. He was on the field for 86 percent of the offensive snaps, while newly acquired running back David Johnson was the only Texans player to catch more than two passes and Fuller was responsible for 44.3 percent of their total through the air. Fuller and Deshaun Watson have a clear connection and with me expecting Houston to be down in games quite a bit, this could lead to a lot of production.
3. The Chiefs are in a different league than the Texans
I went into this game thinking the Chiefs were the best team in the NFL and I had the Texans projected to go 7-9, so it wasn’t overly surprising to me that the games was never actually that close, but this was never even a contest beyond the first quarter. Don’t let the final score (34-20) fool you. The Chiefs scored 31 unanswered, while the Texans picked up eight first downs over that stretch. Even with their two starting corners missing half the game, the defense looked strong, with Frank Clark beating Tytus around the corner like a drum routinely, and if Demarcus Robinson just held on to a couple of passes in the end-zone, KC would have scored 11 more points.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Football Team

1. This game was almost a mirror image of what happened in week one between these two in week one of last season
In that game to kick of 2019, Washington got out to a 17-0 lead in the first half before Carson Wentz came roaring back, hitting a couple of deep balls to DeSean Jackson to win the game. This time around, Philly dominated the first half, with Washington’s first points coming with less than a minute until halftime. Then two things happened over the final 30 minutes – the Eagles started going down like “birds” and that Washington D-line completely took over the game. I will get to those two points a little more in detail, but it is still crazy to me how everything flipped in half two and how reminiscent it was to what happened exactly a year ago.
2. Philadelphia’s two biggest issues seem to be back
First of all, the injuries are already a major concern for the Eagles. They had to bring in three different offensive linemen off the bench, after they had already lost Brandon Brooks and Andre Dillard for the year, plus Boston Scott went to the locker room after they already made the trip without second-year back Miles Sanders. And then, I really didn’t like what Doug Pederson did with the Philly offense in the second half. They almost exclusively went to shotgun, spread sets and ran standard West Coast passing concepts, which Washington was all over, while their pass-rush came crashing down. I know they lost their top run-blocker before the season, but this is still a team that should stick with the ground game and play-action off it.
3. Washington’s defensive line is nasty
The “Football Team” racked up eight sacks, as they were beating up everybody on Philly’s O-line and banging Carson Wentz around like a human piñata. Chase Young immediately showed what kind of freakish talent he is and you had multiple guys from that front become free quickly, to put the heat on Wentz. So much so that Washington’s linebacker started getting through untouched. And their DBs started jumping routes, because they knew the opposing QB had to listen to his internal clock, breaking once he first pointed his shoulders at the target. I never thought I’d say this, but “The Football Team” is alone in first place.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

1. The Cam Newton-led Patriots offense could be scary
This New England offense is so unique now that they went from statuesque Tom Brady to dual-threat Cam Newton and while Cam loves to spread the field and attack matchups, what they do in the run game is what really creates problems for defenses. The Patriots ran the ball 42 times compared to only 19 passes, with 15 of those carries coming from the quarterback. With jet sweep fakes, inverted veer runs and different option plays, their opponents will have to be very disciplined and assignment-proof. Plus, then with Cam’s big arm, he can push the ball downfield off play-action, which wasn’t even a real factor in game one. If not for N’Keal Harry fumbling the ball into the end-zone, New England’s offense would have scored 28 touchdowns – something they only did once from week eight on last season.
2. No New England skill-position players will be on my fantasy team
This is something I haven’t really done in the past either, outside of maybe Gronk, but now – maybe more so than ever – I don’t want the headache of figuring out who will be fantasy-relevant every week. With his rushing upside, Cam might be an interesting option in your leagues, if he is still available on the waiver wire, but none of those skill guys are dependable options for me. Here are the players, who touched the ball at least five times against Miami – Sony Michel (10), James White(8), Rex Burkhead (7), Julian Edelman (6), J.J. Taylor (5) and N’Keal Harry (5). No thank you.
3. We won’t have to wait much longer for Tua
Everybody – including current starter Ryan Fitzpatrick – knows that it’s only a question of time until fifth overall pick Tua Tagovailoa is ready and takes over at quarterback for the Dolphins. Fitzy actually played really well in 2019, but was picked off three times in this year’s season-opener and if you just follow the CBS cameras, you’d think Tua was about to go onto the field. Miami will host the division-rival Bills on Sunday, then it’s the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football, before the Seahawks come to town. After that there are two tough road-trips are on the horizon with San Francisco and Denver. So if the Dolphins don’t want to throw him out there on a short week, they might want to wait for that stretch to be over, since the two L.A. teams will come to South Beach after that. But I think we’ll see the rookie by mid-season if he’s fully healthy.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

1. Aaron Rodgers is baaad man
I’m sorry for using a Stephen A. phrase here, but I just loved seeing Rodgers shut everybody up with a four-touchdown performance, after people started questioning how good he still is, with the Packers drafting his apparent successor Jordan Love in the first round. The way he threw the ball on the move, the zip that he put on his passes and the way he was straight up dealing reminded me of what I saw from Rodgers over the six plus years he was the best football player in the world. At one point he threw two TDs in the matter of half a minute. The first one to Davante Adams was absolutely filthy, when Rodgers escaped to the right and perfectly placed the ball to a spot where the corner had no chance to make a play on it. And then following a Jaire Alexander interception at the Minnesota 45, he connected with Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a long TD on a go route. Green Bay as a team only punted once all day and did not turn it over. Rodgers is getting himself ready to cash all those offseason receipts.
2. That young secondary will break Minnesota’s back
As spectacular as Rodgers was, I’m also highly concerned with this Vikings back-end. I talked about this heading into the year, with that entire group of cornerbacks combining for less than 1500 career snaps on defense, and there is hope that they can still improve as the season goes along, but yesterday they had no answers for number 12 and those Green Bay receivers. Rodgers averaged 10.1 yards per attempt and if not for a couple of drops and guys tripping, that number could have been even higher. You saw the Packers QB pick on Holton Hill quite a bit, their rookies got taught a lesson and nobody could even try to slow down Davante Adams, who hauled in 14 of 17 targets for 156 yards and two TDs.
3. Davante Adams is a top five receiver
When I released my personal top 100 list a couple of months ago, I only had Julio Jones and Michael ahead of Adams. DeAndre Hopkins had a spectacular debut in Arizona and while they didn’t show much in week one, Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans are part of that conversation, but nobody was more impressive than that dude from Green Bay. Matt LaFleur did manufacture a few touches for his top target, with bubble screens and deep crossers, but Adams always made the most of those plays, he made some big catches downfield and for good measure, he also recovered the game-sealing onside kick. The way he schooled those young DBs for Minnesota off the line and how that connection between him and Rodgers was almost automatic was fun to watch. As much as there was made about the Packers not drafting a single receiver in a historically great class as a number two to Adams, I also thought MVS and Lazard stepped up in the season-opener. And I also want to say his counterpart on the opposite team in Adam Thielen had a great day himself.

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

1. Gardner Minshew is a real quarterback
Unlike what new Buccaneers running back Leonard Fournette may think, Jacksonville does have a guy people want to go to battle with. You can’t be too mad at Fournette, since he did have to deal with Blake Bortles for most of his career, but after week one, you can definitely say that statement did not age well. Against the Colts, who were favored by eight points coming in, Minshew completed all but one of his 20 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns, showing that gamer mentality and ability to make plays off script on several occasions. I talked about those Jacksonville receivers early on in the offseason, saying that they are a pretty underrated group, and they also found their new lead back in my big draft crush from Illinois State – James Robinson, who took 100 percent of the carries for Jacksonville. Indianapolis should not have lost that game, since they didn’t punt once and almost doubled Jacksonville in total yards, getting stopped inside the Jags’ five and missing a 30-yard field goal, but let’s give these guys some credit.
2. Time for the Jonathan Taylor show
First and foremost, it just sucks that Marlon Mack seems to have torn his Achilles. He was off to a strong start in this game and I feel really sick for him, especially being in a contract year. However, as bad as I feel for the veteran, I’m also so excited to see what this rookie running behind that Colts O-line. Taylor did not run the ball very well (nine carries for 22 yards), but surprisingly was a big factor in the pass game – which wasn’t his strong suite at Wisconsin – bringing in all of his six targets for 67 yards, where he showed that sprinter speed and the power he can build up on a couple of plays. While Nyheim Hines should clearly be a factor in that offense, with his ability to produce as a pass-catcher and gadget player, without Mack, Taylor now has all the chances to rival Clyde Edwards-Helaire for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
3. C.J. Henderson will be a stud at corner
I could have easily gone with something like “Same old Philip Rivers”, after throwing that bad pick down four in the fourth quarter on a deep crosser to Parris Campbell, when he telegraphed the throw way too much and allowed the safety in quarters coverage to break in front of his receiver. Instead I want to give their ninth overall pick in the draft some love. Henderson was outstanding in his first showing, breaking up three passes and won on kind a jump-ball for an interception, when Jacksonville was down 7-0 at that point in the second quarter, which set up his offense inside the Indy and led to that first touchdown to D.J. Chark. Henderson was all over T.Y. Hilton on a few snaps, including a throw into the end-zone on a third down in the second half (which I thought might be called for P.I. actually) and he knocked the ball out of the hands of Hilton on that fourth down that sealed the win.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

1. Same old Lions
I’m starting to really feel bad for people from Detroit. It’s been about 30 years since that franchise last won a playoff game and they have been irrelevant for large stretches of that window. On Sunday it was yet another example of how this team can mess up games. Up 23-6 with the Bears having a fourth-and-one from the opposing 10-yard line heading into the fourth quarter, the Lions had no business losing that game. Mitch Trubisky all of a sudden turned into Joe Montana and scored three touchdowns in just 15 plays. Matt Stafford on the other hand took a bad sack, which led to a missed a 55-yard field goal and tried to force a ball over the middle that got knocked up in the air and intercepted, when Detroit was still up by three. Even with that, the Lions had a chance to still win the game, as Stafford drove them all the way down the Chicago 16 and after spiking the ball with eleven seconds left, the Lions QB hit running back D’Andre Swift for a perfect pass on a wheel route, but usually sure-handed rookie had it slip out his hands and the prayer Stafford threw up with zeros on the clock was knocked. Another heart-breaker for Motown.
2. The Bears offensive line is a lot better in the run game
After the main part of free agency and the draft were wrapped up, I thought Chicago had two major holes on the roster – Right guard and a safety to pair up with Eddie Jackson. As bad as their Trubisky was in 2019, my biggest issue with Matt Nagy’s offense was the rushing attack. They finished bottom-six in yards per carry and total yards on the ground. So when they basically replaced Kyle Long with a former first-round bust in Germaine Ifedi I was worried of course, even though I said right away that he would fit better inside. In their first showing of the 2020 season, the Bears started getting people moving and you actually saw linemen five to ten yards down the field, as they put hands on the Detroit linebackers. David Montgomery ran hard, Tarik Cohen sprung loose on a couple of power and draw plays and Cordarrelle Patterson had a couple of crucial carries as well. Overall, they the ball 28 times for 149 yards and I give a lot of credit to new O-line coach Juan Castillo, who replaced the legendary Harry Hiestand.
3. Mitch magic in the fourth quarter
Through the first three quarters of the game, Trubisky was 12 of 26 for 153 yards. He did not look like a capable quarterback and had recently missed a wide open Cole Kmet on a third-and-nine from the Detroit ten by several yards. However, over the final 15 minutes he looked like a former second overall pick all of a sudden. Helped by some Lions miscues, he threw three touchdowns on the final four drives (15 total plays) and delivered in the clutch. That final scoring play on a fade route from Anthony Miller out of the slot was a thing of beauty. Miller also made some other huge grabs in that fourth quarter. I still say this was more bad Lions than good Bears, but give the guy some credit. Oh, one more thing – Adrian Peterson still has it. I don’t know how he does it, but he was the best running back on that field on Sunday

Las Vegas Raiders @ Carolina Panthers

1. All those vertical weapons on the Raiders could finally make Derek Carr cut it loose
While it was still more of your usual efficient showing by Carr, as he completed 73.3 percent of his passes for 239 passing yards and one touchdown, I thought he displayed the willingness to test defenses deep. That Jon Gruden offense leans on frustrating defenses with short passes, getting the run game going and then hitting them with a few shots over the top, That last element I thought was missing last season, which capped the Raiders’ potential, While DC is a conservative passer by nature – often times to a frustrating extent – that lack of deep balls had something to do with not having the appropriate weapons at the receiver position. With the additions Las Vegas made this offseason, that has changed. On just the second play of the game, Carr put the ball 50 yards in the air for rookie speedster Henry Ruggs III. Later on the first quarter he hit Ruggs on a deep crosser to set a one-yard touchdown by Josh Jacobs. Carr threw a 23-yard dime Nelson Agholor shortly before halftime to put his team back up by five and at least had his eyes downfield much more throughout the afternoon.
2. That Joe Brady offense and Teddy B will put up some numbers
While he did already coach under Sean Payton in a much smaller role, this is still a rookie offensive coordinator and to begin your career with 30 points against a pretty good Raiders team has to be nice. Teddy Bridgewater certainly deserves some credit here, but I was very impressed with Brady’s offense, that spread the defense out with five guys out on the route and how he forced the Las Vegas defense to defends every level of the field, leading to a lot of easy completions indicated by simple reads of second-level defenders and zone/man indicators. I don’t know who actually made that call fourth-and-inches just across midfield that would have given the Panthers a chance to still win that game, but obviously you’d rather have the ball in the hands of your best player in Christian McCaffrey or create some separation on some kind of mesh concept.
3. Josh Jacobs is about to become a superstar in this league
I came into this season with very high expectations for this second-year back and after watching him put on a show against Carolina, I probably should have put some money on him leading the league in rushing. We already knew how high Jon Gruden was on this kid coming out of Alabama last year and he had a great rookie season, with a team-record 1150 yards on the ground for a first-year player and that was despite missing three games. I already said in the offseason that I believe the Raiders have a top five O-line and the way he puts his head down and runs through people, led to an NFL-best 69 missed tackles forced. The difference this year should be his involvement in the passing game, which he was pretty good at in college, but he only caught 20 balls for 166 yards as a rookie. Against the Panthers he already caught four passes for 46 yards and showed what he can do after catching a simple dump-off, to go with 93 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

1. The Bills now have all the weapons to force opponents to defend the entire field
If there was one area the Bills needed to improve upon this offseason, it was the wide receiver position. John Brown probably had his best season as a pro in 2019 and Cole Beasley was a dependable target in the slot for them. However, neither one of those guys should be a true number one option. Now that they brought in Stefon Diggs via a trade from Minnesota, it puts everybody in their appropriate position. With Dawson Knox taking another step and even having a screen drawn up for him, as well as those backs getting involved, I like what offensive coordinator Brian Daboll can do in terms of making opponents defend the entire field. I know it was “only” the Jets, but Buffalo just seemed to play so much more freely in the pass game.
2. Josh Allen could be an MVP contender in 2020
I actually had Allen as an honorable mention among my MVP candidates and was made fun of a little, when I posted my list on Reddit, but with what I just wrote about the Bills pass-catchers, I just think this could be a big year for their team and the quarterback in particular. The O-line gave him plenty of time to scan the field, he stayed patient and found his checkdowns late and still fired some absolute lasers. Allen also made a lot of plays with his legs on designed runs and scrambles. Will you still get the occasional “What the hell?” moment from him, like fumbling the ball while flipping over a defender? Yes. But if they hone himself in a little and be a more consistent threat from within the pocket, to go with those off-script plays, he could put up some big numbers.
3. The Jets might be the prime contenders for the number one overall pick in the 2021 draft
When I released my pre-season power rankings, I had the Jets all the way at the bottom of the list and that’s exactly what they looked like when we first saw them this season. The final score might have been 27-17, but the Bills could have easily blown them out by 30. It took Gang Green 40 minutes to get into the end-zone and it took Jamison Crowder breaking three tackles and going 69 yards and a quick screen play to get there. Buffalo’s rookie kicker Tyler Bass missed two field goals from less than 40 yards – even though I still believe the first one was actually good – Josh Allen fumbled the ball twice and that last touchdown was meaningless, with under a minute remaining. As much as I liked Sam Darnold coming out of USC, as I had him as my top quarterback in the 2018 draft, and I still believe in the right situation he would already be an above-average starter, I don’t know how you could pass on Trevor Lawrence if you are in position to draft him.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

1. The reigning MVP might be even better
Lamar Jackson was so sharp and in control of the offense, keeping his eyes downfield even as he was stepping into crowded spaces or backing out and rolling either way. We saw him hit a deep ball to Marquise Brown, which was where I wanted to see him improve, and he impressed with tremendous ball-placement all afternoon, taking advantage of the leverage of defenders and drilling the ball into some tight windows. The day after the game I saw a statistic that he was 9-of-10 for 180 yards on passes of 10+ yards against Cleveland, after he completed only 49.2 percent of those his MVP season. I would just like to see him avoid some of those hits, where he goes head-first to pick up a few extra yards. But in terms of his pure pocket passing, it is scary to think where he could go.
2. The Ravens secondary plastered those Browns pass-catchers
It’s not a secret that Baltimore has one the premiere group of cornerbacks in the entire league, but I would argue they are the very best there is. Jarvis Landry got open on some crossers and deeper developing routes, when Baker did have a clean pocket, but altogether outside of Cleveland’s one touchdown at the goal-line, where the Ravens D lost one of the tight-ends out of a jumbo package, it was tough sledding for OBJ & company. Marlon Humphrey is already top five at his position, Marcus Peters is unreal at anticipating and reading routes, Jimmy Smith would be a high quality #2 on any other team and Tavon Young coming back in the slot only helps. Oh, and for Austin Hooper to be the highest-paid tight-end early in the offseason and to only come up with two catches for 15 yards is pretty disappointing.
3. J.K. Dobbins is about to take over this Ravens backfield
I’m not saying the rookie will play 80 percent of the snaps or handle more than half the rushing load going forward, but there is a reason I grabbed Dobbins in all my fantasy leagues, He was my number two back in the draft and I said right away that he was a perfect fit for this Baltimore offense. In his debut, the rook had a couple of nice gains and converted twice near the goal-line, while veteran Mark Ingram was stuffed for minimal yardage on several occasions. Gus Edwards will get some work to close out games, when they Ravens are ahead by multiple scores, and Justice Hill is an explosive player, who I really like in the passing game in particular, but Dobbins should be the lead guy for this squad.

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons

1. The Falcons secondary is still a mess
Over the first half of the 2019 season, the Falcons were the worst defense in the NFL, allowing 31.6 points per game, as they went 1-7 over that stretch. They started turning things around after that, but on Sunday afternoon they reverted back to that early 2019 form. We saw them play a lot more man-coverage, where they constantly allowed separation on crossing routes or just lost guys out of their breaks. When they were in zone, those corners gave way too much cushion in cover-three and when they did force some long-yardage situations, they just backed up and allowed easy 10-15 yard plays to set up easy third downs or basically surrender field goals. What really killed them was that 4th & 5 play Seattle had from the opposing 38-yard line when it was still 14-12, as Isaiah Oliver missed his punch in press-alignment, giving up the inside release to D.K. Metcalf, who could still make a perfect over-the-shoulder catch on a fade route. And by the way, Seattle didn’t look much better on the back-end.
2. Russell Wilson is finally allowed to cook
As bad as Atlanta was on the back-end defensively – What a performance for Russ. He went 31-of-35 for 322 yards and four touchdowns, while picking up two more first downs with his legs. Seahawks – and all football fans for that matter – have been screaming at the top of their lungs for the coaching staff to let Wilson to throw the ball earlier in games and on early downs. It wasn’t like the Falcons were all over Seattle’s receivers, but the touch Wilson throws with to perfectly put the ball in the hands of his guys in full stride is just a beautiful thing to watch. D.K. Metcalf looks to have taken a step forward with his route-running and Tyler Lockett is back fully healthy. So that means it’s bombs away for the Seahawks, which means trouble for the rest of the league, since they can still win with the power run game and then take play-action shots off that.
3. Calvin Ridley is an absolute stud receiver
I always believed in this kid. He was my number one receiver in the draft three years ago coming out of Alabama and he immediately started producing in the pros. While he was on track for a 1000-yard campaign last season, he is off to an even better start in 2020. Against the Seahawks, he hauled in nine passes for 130 yards and two TDs. Ridley constantly created separation by attacking leverage and excellent route-running. While he isn’t a straight-burner necessarily, he knows how to find space and is very shifty after the catch. The only thing that sucked was that one bad drop late in the game on fourth down, when he was too focused on getting his feet in bounds and had the ball go right through his hands because of it. But he and Julio Jones are right there in the race for top receiver duos, in a loaded division for pass-catchers.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals

1. Welcome to Cincinnati, Joe Burrow
It’s always tough for a top draft pick to come to a bad team, try to turn things around and learn early on that even if he does everything right, it might not lead to victories. Burrow did not play a perfect game by any means – He got picked off by Melvin Ingram in the fourth quarter, who made such an instinctive play, when he read the screen pass and spun around to have the ball land right in his hands as Burrow shoveled it ahead late, he missed a potential touchdown to A.J. Green on a deep ball earlier and 13 points just don’t get you any wins in the NFL. That being said, he had his team in position to beat the Chargers, as he drove them all the way down to the L.A. three, only to have A.J. Green get called for an offensive pass interference on what would have otherwise been a game-winning TD and then his kicker to miss a chip-shot 31-yard field goal attempt. He better be hurt and not just have faked something there, once he saw the kick was wide right.
2. Mike Williams is one of the great big-play receivers in the game
Coming out of Clemson four years ago, Williams was known for being a super-physical downfield receiver, that had connected for a multitude of big plays with his former quarterback Deshaun Watson. That’s exactly what he has been in the NFL so far. Williams is incredible on 50-50 balls, he routinely comes through with big catches downfield along the sidelines and comes through when his team needs him most. Of the three receivers that went in the top ten back in 2017 (him, Corey Davis and John Ross), it is safe to say the Chargers has by far been the most best one – even though Davis had a pretty good showing himself on Monday. Last season Williams cracked the 1000-yard mark on a league-leading 20.4 yards per grab. This past Sunday against the Bengals he might have only caught four passes, but all of them were key in the victory – a great toe-tap grab at the sideline, coming back to the ball on a deep curl route and two go-balls on the sideline, where the safety almost knocked his head off on both of them.
3. Bobby Hart should not ever trash-talk
I have said many times that Hart is one of the worst starting offensive tackles in all of football and I have no idea why the Bengals continue to pay him, even with their bad track record of drafting linemen. I’m sure he tries “hart” and it’s not like he doesn’t belong in the league, but he should not talk trash – especially not to Joey Bosa, who came back to beat him for a sack with his well-known double-hand swipe, before getting into the face of Hart. This Chargers D-line was beating the crap out of Cincy’s front-five and the only reason they were in the game was their rookie quarterback speeding up his internal clock and still finding ways to make plays.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

1. DeAndre Hopkins is worth so much more than a second-round pick
While I do understand that the Texans would not have been able to pay D-Hop the kind of money he demanded, Bill O’Brien doesn’t deserve any sympathy for being the laughing stock for NFL fans. Hopkins is an elite receiver and Houston certainly didn’t get back the return he was worth, as they basically got back a second-round pick and took a bad David Johnson contract off the hands of Arizona, even if he actually looked better in week one than he did all of 2019. Nuk had more catches (14) than all the Texans receivers combined on Thursday (13). He went for 151 yards, including a couple of big grabs, including setting up a one-yard Kenyan Drake touchdown after being called down just short.
2. The Cardinals defense is starting to come together
I know the day didn’t start off great for this Arizona D, when they allowed Raheem Mostert to slice through for a 76-yard catch-and-run touchdown on an angle route, but outside of that one play, they held the offense of the game’s most creative offensive play-caller in Kyle Shanahan to just 290 yards. Mostert averaged under four yards per carry on 15 attempts and they held the reigning NFC champs to just a field goal over 50 minutes of game time. I’d advise you to check out Brett Kollman’s breakdown of all the different elements to Vance Joseph’s defense, where it seems like they now have the pieces to actually be successful with it. Budda Baker is a flying missile, their run defense should take a huge step forward with what they added to the front and some of their other young guys made plays when they really needed to, including Byron Murphy breaking up that final fourth down attempt for San Francisco, even though the ball was certainly thrown behind the receiver.
3. Jimmy G has to be more accurate
I understand why 49ers fans are frustrated, because their team was in control of the game early on and even after the Cardinals took the lead, their quarterback had all the chances to still get them the W. San Francisco rushed for 123 yards on 4.9 yards per attempt and Garoppolo also relied heavily on his backs in the pass game. If you take away that 76-yard catch-and-run touchdown by Raheem Mostert, where the QB just had to lob it over the middle and watch #31 take off, Jimmy G threw for only 183 yards on the other 32 attempts he had (5.7 yards per attempts). His stat line did look pretty good, but it does not represent the performance he had. Because not only did he almost kill George Kittle on a simple bubble screen, by putting the ball way too high, but when his team needed him most, with the ball at the Arizona 21, he underthrew an easy touchdown to Kendrick Bourne on first down and then thew the ball behind Trent Taylor on fourth-and-five.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints

1. The Saints D-line has a clear advantage over the Bucs O-line
The formula for beating Tom Brady has been out there for a while – get home with four. He has been notorious for slicing up defenses when they have to send extra blitzers, which only a few teams have been able to do effectively. On Sunday, Cam Jordan & company made life very uncomfortable for the 43-year old quarterback, as they sacked him three times and made him move around constantly. You saw some frustration on the first pick he threw, expecting Mike Evans to continue going down the seams and he was off with ball-placement on a few occasions. This is the reason I had the Saints beating the Bucs in the NFC title game, when I put out my season predictions two weeks ago.
2. Scottie Miller will be a key piece to the Tampa Bay offense
The Bucs obviously have one of the premiere receiver duos in the league with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, their group of tight-end honestly goes three deep and they now have an interesting mixture of backs. However, the one guy who routinely came up with big plays for Tom Brady was little Scottie Miller. Last year’s sixth-round pick out of Bowling Green caught five passes for 73 yards and added another six-yard run against the Saints. Ronald Jones was the only one with more scrimmage yards for Tampa Bay on Sunday and that was by only three. The guy they call “Scooter” lined up inside and out, caught a couple of passes over the middle, came up with a big grab on a slot fade route and forced a P.I. call on an out-and-up. Miller could be Brady’s new version of Julian Edelman in his new home.
3. Alvin Kamara is a different breed
While I don’t advocate paying too many running backs beyond their rookie contract and I have to believe the Saints have turned off the salary cap on their Madden team, with how much they will be in the minus heading into next year’s offseason, we saw that elite running back they did pay for on Sunday. The Bucs are a tough for New Orleans, because with Drew Brees’ declining arm talent, they really want to rely more on their backs and that run game to control games, but Tampa Bay was the number one rush defense just last season and they should be near the top once again in 2020. Still, with Kamara not even being the team’s leading rusher (12 attempts for only 16 yards), he caught five passes for 51 yards and converted twice in the red-zone, once on a screen pass that seemed to be dead in the backfield and then on a six-yard run, where he bounced off a tackler, who in cinematic fashion lost his mouthpiece in the process. That explosiveness, the contact balance and the speed are all back, after he was banged up for most of last season.

Sunday Night and Monday games in the comments!!

If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/09/16/three-statements-for-each-week-one-nfl-game/
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