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Megathread: Many are now migrating to Signal as a result of WhatsApp updating their terms and privacy policy

Hello everyone!
We've recently started to receive lots of similar posts as a result of recent news regarding WhatsApp updating their terms and privacy policy, which will take effect on February 8th May 15th, 2021. Any WhatsApp users who do not accept these changes will be blocked from using the service. As a result, many are now migrating to Signal. We’ve decided to make this the designated thread for all things related to this topic.
Here is a direct link to Signal's terms and privacy policy (last updated May 25, 2018). Don't worry, it's not very long. For those wondering where Signal's revenue comes from: "We are a 501c3 nonprofit. We're not tied to any major tech companies, and we can never be acquired by one either. Development is supported by grants and donations from Signal users. https://signal.org/donate/"
Some related media coverage:
Some topics you may want to discuss below:
We will be updating this post as events unfold. Be safe, and always remember the human.
Edits 1–38: A brief summary of events, by day:
Wednesday, January 6:
Thursday, January 7:
Friday, January 8:
Saturday, January 9:
Sunday, January 10:
Monday, January 11:
Tuesday, January 12:
Wednesday, January 13:
Thursday, January 14:
Friday, January 15:
Saturday, January 16:
Sunday, January 17:
Wednesday, January 20:
Friday, January 22:
Saturday, January 23:
Thursday, January 28:
Welcome to all newcomers, but also THANK YOU to all of our regular contributors who have shown up to sort by new, answer questions, and provide help! ⭐ As a reminder, this is an unofficial Reddit community (or "subreddit") that is run by the user community. We are not affiliated with or endorsed by the Signal Technology Foundation or Signal Messenger LLC.
submitted by redditor_1234 to signal [link] [comments]

India going to create a national cryptocurrency - how this makes no sense whatsoever

India might ban private cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and develop a national digital coin
Makes no sense whatsoever.
We already have a national digital coin. The Rupee combined with online transfers mechanisms like UPI, NEFT, PayTM etc is the national digital coin.
To understand this, one needs to first understand what is a blockchain and what problem it solves?
The problem solved by blockchains/cryptocurrencies is the problem of double spending?
What is the double spending problem?
Let's take the example of a movie DVD or a song CD to understand the problem. Let's say you have a song CD or a movie DVD. You gift/sell it to someone. Then he has the CD or DVD & you don't have it. This is because it's a physical item. Compare this with a MP3/MP4 file of a song or a movie which is not actually a physical item. If you give it to your friend, then you still continue to have it with you. Because when you send it to your friend via WhatsApp or email, all you have sent to him is a copy of the file.
The same thing happens with money also. Let's say there is a something called as a digital 100Rs coin. Now compare an actual physical Mahatma Gandhi 100 Rs paper note & the digital coin. Let's say you go to a shop & buy something with your 100 Rs note, the shopkeeper gets the note. You no longer have the note with you. You cannot spend the same note two times because the moment you spend the note, it's gone.
This is not the same with a digital 100 Rs coin (if one existed without a blockchain like technology). You have a 100 Rs digital coin. You want to buy cheese & it costs Rs. 100. So you send the 100 Rs coin to the vendor by email or whatever. He sends you the pack of cheese. But you still have the 100 Rs digital coin with you. You can go & spend it once more.
This is the double spending problem with digital currency.
What is the traditional solution to the double spending problem?
The traditional solution is a Trusted Third Party (TTP). Your bank or NPCI or PayTM is the TTP. People at both ends of the transaction trust the Bank or NPCI or PayTM as a TTP. The TTP guarantees that they will debit the money from one account before transferring it to the other account thereby solving the double spending problem. The solution is a centralized solution. So the INR is already a centralized digital currency when used in combination with NEFT, UPI, PayTM etc.
What is blockchain technology?
In 2008, an anonymous person (or group of people) under the pseudonym of Satoshi Nakomoto published a paper detailing decentralized online currency. The decentralized technology was called as Blockchain. He/They also published their proof of concept implementation of blockchains with a currency they named bitcoin. Today there a lots of different kinds of blockchains (with some differences but all based on the same underlying blockchain concept) & different cryptocurrency.
Blockchains use cryptographic techniques to solve the double spending problem. Blockchains use a combination of cryptographic primitives to ensure that adding a transaction to a ledger of transactions is relatively easy but undoing the transaction (deleting/changing it) is very, very hard (impossible for all practical purposes). This is how the blockchain solves the double spending problem in a decentralized way. When you try to spend a bitcoin, the blockchain can tell if you have already spent it before, thereby preventing the double spending
NPCI/NEFT/SWIFT also uses cryptographic techniques to protect the authenticity & integrity of a digital transaction but they require a Central Authority, a TTP. Blockchain is the first technology to do the same in a dencentralized way. And Blockchains use cryptographic primitives to achieve this & hence it's called cryptocurrencty (note - http://www.cryptoisnotcryptocurrency.com/)
India isn't the only country trying to do this
This is an article written in the London School of Economics blog by Martin C. W. Walker, the director of banking and finance at the Center for Evidence-Based Management
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2020/12/15/central-bank-digital-currency-nine-key-questions-answered/
He also writes about how several central banks are trying to come up with a Govt blockchain based blockchain & why it makes no sense.
One of the main points from his article - a national digital currency doesn't need a blockchain & blockchain isn't the best solution for it.
Q. Does a CBDC (Central bank digital currency) need a Blockchain? A. The simple answer to this question is “No”. Neither Avant nor Dinero Electrónico used blockchain. Bakong used a form of blockchain called Hyperledger Iroha. The sole role of blockchain in Bakong according to the white paper is to record processed transactions on a centralised permissioned ledger. A role that could be performed by many other technologies.
The point being Blockchains do not solve an unsolved problem. They solve an already solved problem in a different way. The existing ways were centralized. Blockchains solves the same problem in a decentralized way. But if the blockchain is run by the Govt then it makes no sense because it defeat the purpose of decentralization. Blockchain aren't more secure or more efficient than traditional methods. They are used only because they are decentralized.
What this post is about & what it's not about?
Around 3-4 years back, Chandrababu Naidu & several other CMs in India proposed setting up govt blockchains to store land records, logistics solutions & lots of other things. Back then, I have had fierce arguments in india about why this makes no sense.
The main reason is that a Govt blockchain by definition is a contradiction of terms. The other reason is that since then I have believed that the blockchain has very few uses except as a currency. Blockchain is fantastic technology created from existing cryptographic primitives, but it's use is limited except as a currency - this is not a criticism - a technology which creates a decentralized currency is a great feat by itself.
In this post & the comment thread, I am not going to be discussing other uses of Blockchains - logistics, land records, smart contracts, whatever. Because even if Blockchains can be effective for those things, you can solve those issues in centralized way - the bottom line is that a Blockchain created by the Govt is a contradiction - so it doesn't matter what it is used for. I don't want to detract from that topic.
This post isn't also about the banning of bitcoin & other cryptocurrencies - that's a different topic. It's rather about the meaninglessness of creating a govt cryptocurrency & govt blockchain.
Banning of cryptocurrency is of course inevitable & I never expected otherwise, so this post is not about that.
TL;DR Govt Digital Coin is meaningless. There already exists a Govt Digital Coin. It's the rupee in combination with NPCI etc.
submitted by RisenSteam to india [link] [comments]

Apple [AAPL] Stock Price Predictions | Buy or Sell AAPL? Apple [AAPL] Stock Price Target & Analysis

Should you buy Apple stock or has the company run out of growth opportunities? What is my price prediction for Apple in the next years? Read until the end as I reveal my price target for Apple and also what I think will happen in the next couple of days, weeks & months!
~ Warning! Very Very Long Post~
Hello everyone! So, let’s go over some of the latest news on Apple before moving on to some fundamental and technical analysis, predictions and my price target for the stock in the next years.
So, let’s start with the news that Apple will cut the App Store commission in half for small app developers starting in the next days, this will affect developers who earn less than $1M annually from the App Store Sales. This is likely to lead to a small decline in commission revenues for Apple as around 98% of the app developers will qualify for this tax reduction from 30% to 15%, but all these small developers only contribute to about 5% of the estimated $50B in annual revenues from the App Store, so that would be only a $1.25B loss for the company, that is less than half a % of the company’s total net sales in the last fiscal year.
Also, these changes may lead to a potential long-term revenue boost, as it is likely this will lead to an increasing creation of apps which will generate more commissions in return.
Alongside this we also saw the company releasing the new MacBook’s with their first in-house chip, which promises faster video and imaging processing times, with both CPU and GPU performance up to 2 times faster than the latest PC laptop chip using just a fraction of the power consumption, with both of the macbooks promising big improvements in battery life. Apple is also expected to roll out even more in-house chips in future products, as they have started the 2-year breakup with Intel chips.
We also saw Morgan Stanley upgrading their base case to $191 at the end of November, as they have cited record lead times, supply chain forecasts and carriers demand as they expect that the company will sell around 270M iPhone in fiscal year 2021, that’s 50M more than the consensus and almost 30M more than the previous estimate of Morgan Stanley, with an average selling price of 842$, 9% more than the base case, as people tend to chose the more expensive and high tech versions of the lineup in this new 5G cycle.
The 5G super-cycle, which I believe is on the way, and will continue in the next years, as 5G become more available worldwide, could still be the biggest thing coming right away for the company with 5G smartphones expected to surpass 4G sales by 2024, with the average sale price of the 5G phones also coming down, helping them become more popular. This will also be helped by the recent entry to the Indian market, as India will probably become the world biggest country in the next decade, this could be a huge opportunity for Apple to start and take away market-share from their competitors like Samsung and Xiaomi which have the biggest market shares right now.
They also released an update iPad Pro and an all-new iPad Air in September which will also boost sales in this work-from-home environment that will keep the demand very high for this kind of products, just like the Macs. Alongside the increasing demand from the Wearables, Home & Accessories that include Air Pods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, and many more products.
But the biggest reasons I believe Apple is poised for continued growth, is primarily due to its services business, as they start to offer more and more services like the Apple ONE BUNDLE, which include up to 6 services from (Apple Music, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, the new Apple Fitness+ and the iCloud service) for a pretty reasonable price in my opinion starting from 15$ up to 30$/month, this could be a great option for families and even individuals who use their services a lot.
The latest services, Fitness+ just launched in the past days, and is a direct competitor to the likes of Peloton, as the service is available on the iPhone, iPad or even Apple TV. This also makes consumers buy the Apple Watch which syncs to the other devices to show you different information. The Fitness+ app just on its own is 8$/month or 80$/year which is less expensive than Peloton subscription which charges 13$ or even traditional gyms like Planet Fitness at 10$/month.
I think this will be the fastest growing sector for the company, as this aligns with the new macro trends, as the world is moving more and more to a digital approach to almost everything as consumer preferences, with more & more younger people reaching the point in life when they use these services start to align to this increasing digital approach.
We also shouldn’t forget the Apple Card & Apple Pay service among many others which also seem to gain from the move to digital & contactless payments, as this has been accelerated due to the current situation in the past year.
And one last piece of news, and the most recent one, is that Apple may have fast-tracked the Titan project. The Titan project is targeting a 2024 or 2025 push to develop an electric vehicle with advanced battery technologies, that will deliver significant increases in range at much lower costs than the current technologies while also offering self-driving capabilities.
It’s reported they will not use the same technology as Tesla Full-Self-Driving feature, but will use LIDAR sensors, similar to those that we can find in the latest iPhone 12 PRO.
I think Apple can go 2 ways with this project, they can either use the huge amount of cash the company has to buy another car-maker like Ford, GM or any other car manufacturer expect Tesla and Toyota which do have a big market cap, so that they can fast-track the potential manufacturing of cars, or they can enter into a partnership with big companies like Tesla, Volkswagen or any other car marker to either produce cars or license their technology to this other car-makers which would ultimately and probably have higher margin-returns than the effective manufacturing of cars. Apple’s current overall gross margins stand at 38% vs the 15% average of the world top 10 automakers by market cap, which is significantly lower.
But this Apple Car thing is so far out, and there are so many unknowns, I will not try to predict anything related to this until there is more clarity on the subject.
And last, before moving on to some predictions, here are some of the highlights that we heard from the latest investors conference meeting, as the CEO, Tim Cook expressed optimism ahead with the launch of many new products and services, especially the Home Pod Mini and the new 5G iPhones, as these new iPhones include new LIDAR scanners that greatly improve the camera capabilities, as the iPhone as seen very positive reviews. We also saw the Senior VP and CFO, Luca Maestri give us great outlook for the company as they expect the installed devices base to continue to growth despite already being at an all-time high as they have over 585M paid subscriptions on their platforms and expect this to surpass 600M by the end of 2020.
I also researched and found what products we can see in the near future, with the first half of 2021 bringing new iMacs, the AirPods3 and the iPad Pro, while in the FALL event we will probably get the new iPhone 13 alongside the iPhone SE PLUS and the Watch Series 7 with more products coming later in 2021 or that don’t have an estimated release date like the Air Pods Pro, the Air Tags and the iPad Mini 6.
So, before even starting, you should know that I am bull on Apple but I am willing to hear other opinions so don’t be afraid to leave a comment down below.
I have made some predictions based on the growth rate of the company, the latest plans announced by them and used some estimates. So, keep in mind this are only projections and are calculated by myself, this is not an investment advice and you should do your own research.
This are my 2025 projections for Apple, let’s take a closer look at them, each on their own.
So, in term of revenues, Apple has 5 big sources of income, which saw an overall increase of 6% despite lagging sales in the iPhone. The biggest revenue is by far the iPhone right now with over $137B in revenue in the fiscal year ending in September. I expect to see the iPhone sales increasing in the next years, especially in 2021, with the new 5G iPhone creating a super-cycle for the company, as most iPhone users, including myself here, as I will upgrade from my iPhone X, will switch to this new product. The iPhone sales have decreased in the last couple of years by 14% and 3% as a result of the product not having big improvements, as well as iPhone usually starting to last longer than previous models, so I expect to see a 12% increase in sales next year and a gradual decrease in the growth of sales as more people upgrade, ending with just a 5% growth in iPhone sales in 2025.
The next revenues stream is from the Mac, which has seen an increase in the past 2years, with revenues topping $28B this year after the huge demand from the work from home consumers. I expect this trend to continue as they plan to continue to launch better products and I can see the company having a similar growth next year before starting to decline slightly until 2025, also ending with a 5% growth.
The iPad is currently the smallest revenue stream for Apple but has also seen an increase in demand in the past 2 years with a 13% average increase in revenues. I also expect the iPad to continue to grow in the next couple of years, especially with the learn-from-home environment for kids, and even after this period ends, the transformation for learning will implicate more digital usage. I expect the iPad to see some similar growth to the Macs, especially with the latest generation also bringing a new iPad air to the market.
The 4th revenue stream and the fastest growing in the past 2 years, with an average growth of 33% are the wearables, home & accessories revenues. This have topped $30B this year, as Apple has also just launched the Apple Watch series 6 and also feature other great products like Apple TV, the Air Pods the Home Pod and the Home Pod mini alongside other third-party accessories.
I gave this revenue stream a growth of 20% starting next year with a gradual decrease to around 8% by 2025, as I believe this will become more & more popular as they start to offer more vertical integration.
And last, but by no means least, the revenue stream that I expect to grow the most and the fastest is the revenue from the services that Apple offers. This includes revenues from Apple Care, Advertising, Cloud Services, Payment Services like Apple Card & Apple Pay and of course the digital content which includes fees from the App Store alongside subscription-based income including the new Apple One Bundle and Apple Fitness+ alongside the already know Apple Arcade, Apple Music, Apple News+, Apple TV+ and hopefully I don’t forget any others.
So, I expect this to become the clear 2nd biggest revenue stream for Apple by 2025, as I expect this to grow more than 20% next year, mainly due to the Apple One Bundle and Apple Fitness+ followed up by a slightly decreasing growth, ending with a 10% increase in revenues in 2025.
I think this are fairly conservative base case scenarios for the revenues, as I expect them to continue to increase the other revenue streams and not have such a large percentage of the revenues coming from the iPhone sales as you can see in this chart.
In terms of expenses, I pretty much kept the same margins as in previous years, with a 68% expense ratio on product sales [ iPhone / iPad / Mac / WHA ] and 35% expense ratio on SERVICES, as this are way more lucrative.
In the past 3 years, the products gross margin was 32.7%, so I actually imply bigger expenses for the manufacturing and sales of products, as this is mostly impacted by the company’s supplier’s ability to make up for and demand, while for the services revenue, the gross margins for the last 3 years has been 63.5% on average, but I expect this to be more in-line with the 66% margin in this past year. So, if services manage to grow to about half the revenues from the iPhone, this will effectively double the gross revenues, as every buck gained in the service revenues account for 2$ in the product sales.
So, I expect the total revenues for Apple to increase from $274B in 2020 to over $440B by 2025, increasing by approximately 10%/year, while I will keep the expense ratio pretty much in-line and have them increasing by 11%/year, this would bring the total gross income for Apple to $177B, increasing mainly due to the services revenues as I said earlier. This growth is just above the 4year average, and below the 2018 levels, which we might see again with this 5G super-cycle and explosive growth in the services revenue.
I also think the company will continue to invest in both Capital Expenditure and Operating expenses.
I think the operating expenses will remain pretty much in line with the previous years, as this number has increased by 1% annually both in R&D and SG&A. So, I will keep the exact percentages from previous years, as I expect the revenue to increase, thus I don’t see a big increase percentage wise. This would account for over $60B in operating expenses by 2025 and over $11B in Capital Expenditures by 2025, as I expect this to increase, mainly due to the possible EV developments or investments in self-driving capabilities alongside other manufacturing capabilities. You can see that the Capex spending has been decreasing in the past years with just over $8.8B in payments for business acquisitions and the other traditional Capex spending. Some people may use the cash generated by investing activities as Capex, but that is more unreliable. I also can see the Capex going back up, so I wanted to be safe and implied a 10% growth.
This money would account for over $73B in expenses and would bring the profit for the company to almost $104B before interest and taxes.
Moving on, let’s see what interest income and expenses the company has had in the past few years. We can see a decrease in interest expense in the past few years as the company has been paying off debt, but they have also been generating less money in this department, with an overall decrease in this department of more than 50% in the past year, way less than the amount from 2018. So, for safety reasons, I used a 10% decline in both income and expenses related to interest, while increasing the other losses by 10%/year.
This would bring the company pre-tax income to just over $104B in 2025.
Let’s move on to taxes. I know the Federal income tax rate is 21% for the company, but the actual effective tax rate for the company was lower than 15% in the past year, mainly due to lower tax-rates on foreign earnings alongside tax-benefits and tax-settlements. The average effective tax rate has been just over 16% in the past 3 years, but with more and more of the revenues coming from outside the US, I think it’s safe to say that the company will have around a 15% effective tax rate by 2025, this obviously if nothing major changes in tax policy around the world.
So, Apple would have $88.6B in income after tax by 2025 and with the current outstanding shares standing at just under 17B, so I don’t even account for the company probably continuing to do share buybacks, this would mean a $5.22 future earnings/share. And with today’s price for Apple just around 136$, that would mean to company is trading at just over 26 times forward price to earnings.
I don’t think Apple will ever trade at a discount again, with the current PE standing at over 40, I believe this will eventually go down, probably to around 35, despite the increase in services revenue, which is highly valued by investors. I think we can see Apple trade somewhere near 35 times P/E in 2025, especially if something big happens with the EV project, this could be even higher, just look at Tesla which trades at insane P/E. Of course, we also have to take into consideration the dividends that will be received from owning the stock, as Apple has started to pay dividends almost a decade ago and has 9 years of dividend growth, with a 10% annual rate of growth in the past 5 years. Here is the dividend growth history for the company, as I also went conservative on this estimate and implied a 7% growth for the next 2 years, 6% for 2023 and 2024 and just 5% in 2025.
So here are my 3 price targets for the company, including dividends but not reinvested. My bear case scenario is that Apple will trade at almost 165$ which implies a return of over 21% by 2025, while my base case scenario would see Apple trading at 195$ with a return of capital of 43%. I will also make the bull case for Apple trading at 225$ by 2025 with dividends included, which would imply just over 65% in gains by then.
I think this is possible as Apple has also continued to buy back shares of the company on a constant basis, as they continue to an impressive campaign with over $72B worth of common stock repurchased in 2020. They continue to buy back shares at a very fast pace, having repurchased over 1.3B shares in 2019 and 2018, while also issuing less stock every year.
So here is the full spreadsheet that I have projected for Apple by 2025 and the breakdown of everything i estimated [ 1 / 2 ] , if you do have another opinion or a suggestion please leave a comment down below, I think I have been conservative in most of my projections, but feel free to give your opinion.
Keep in mind, these targets might sound ridiculous, but just look at the growth Apple has had in the last 5years. The company has increased in value by more 400% in just the past 5years and is over 100.000% up since it started trading. So yes, the valuation is mad right now for the company. So, are you willing to bet against Apple?
The company also has pristine financials, with more than $65B in total assets compared to total liabilities, and more than $38B in cash and cash equivalents.
So, what do I expect in the next couple of days, weeks and months for Apple?
Let’s look at this CHART, so starting with the stock split, Apple saw a correction within the September stock market pullback, in a buy the news & sell the event, after a huge runup post-announcement of the stock split. The stock entered a consolidation period, and didn’t have any big catalysts, especially with new iPhone lineup not being included in the Q4 results due to the late launch. The stock found some levels of resistance near the $120 levels that it struggled to get past but acted also as support after breaking them just before the recent news of the possible EV developments or self-driving-features to be licensed to other car manufacturers. After that news the stock spiked and has now reached the previous highs made before the stock split and is facing some resistance, if the stock pushes over $140 I think we can officially say that it broke the resistance at those levels and is not just a fake-out. But I think it’s likely that the stock will consolidate between 122 and 135$ in the next weeks until the next iPhone sales and quarterly results are released, as the stock has entered overbought territory again with an RSI over 70, the first time since the stock split.
So, what would I do? Well, I own Apple stock, and I really believe this company will remain the biggest or one of the biggest in the future, so I would really add on any weakness that the stock shows before the next quarter earnings are released, as typically Q1 earnings are the best for the company due to increased holiday sales combined with the launch of new products. I think any entry below 130$ would be really nice to start and build a position or increase it if you already own the stock. As I believe Apple is one of the most stable stocks out there with large institutional holders like Vanguard, BlackRock and Berkshire owning over 900M shares each.
Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market!
Have a great day and see you next time!
submitted by 0toHeroInvesting to stocks [link] [comments]

Is Facebook's moat widening or shrinking? My unorganized thoughts, do you see any flaws?

Hardware:
I think the smartest defensive move Facebook can make at this stage is doing whatever it takes to become a major player in consumer hardware. Even if they breakeven, or lose money on this endeavor it can be treated as user acquisition costs for the people who wouldn't make a Facebook account otherwise, or as a way to make Facebook accounts as sticky as possible to protect against people leaving the platform. Anecdotally, I've seen people that have preached "Facebook is evil" for years, say that not they will not ever delete their newly open accounts because if they did their Oculus hardware wouldn't work, and they'd lose all of their purchases.
Facebook is dominating the growing VR market with an iron fist. Non-advertising revenue grew 156% in Q4, and IDC estimates 3 million Quest 2's were sold in Q4. Oculus Quest 2 has stellar reviews, despite the mandatory Facebook account for use. Facebook's VR devices also use Messenger for messages, Workplace for enterprise, and I believe Facebook Horizon (which is integrated with the FB app) will eventually be the place users load into initially, and launch third party apps from.
High investment cost makes it unlikely that other social media company can compete with Facebook in hardware (especially AVR), and this should give Facebook a permanent utility advantage against its peers. The companies that could compete, big tech, and gaming giants seem unwilling to make the investment to compete. I think they're aware that Facebook is completely fine making $0 to be dominant in the VR space, and that's scared them away in addition to facts like VR being a relatively small market for them.Apple is rumored to be considering a release of a Quest-like headset in later 2022, but the device will be priced far above $1000 according to Mark Gurman.
VR is where I'm most confident in Facebook's ability to achieve its hardware dreams, but consumer AR is also an area where its only competition in terms of investments made is Apple. So I think their chances there are decent too. Facebook is working on long term AR glasses, but is also releasing Smartglasses in collaboration with Luxottica (Ray-Ban and Oakley) this year. There's also Facebook's line of smart video chatting devices, Portal.
Traditionally Listed Moats
Intangible assets consisting of the vast amount of data users have shared: sustained and growing, but people are also sharing things about themselves on other apps increasingly.
Growth of users means network effects still growing
Number and diversity of advertisers, and advertiser verticals still growing
Competition?
There is rising social media competition, and always the threat of new entrants. That being said, competition seems to carve out niches, so they aren't competing as directly as we'd think. The closest thing to Facebook the Blue app, for connecting with family and friends is Instagram. Competing apps can have similar features, but the main utilities are different. Tik Tok is mostly a short video app, Youtube is a long video app, Twitter is a breaking news app, Reddit is a communities app, etc. Facebook's utility first and foremost is connecting with REAL people who's identity you can verify, like friends and family. Like previously mentioned, the closest competitor is Instagram.
Messaging
There can be lack of differentiation here, but Messenger tied to Facebook, Instagram, Portal and Oculus. I suspect it'll be tied to future hardware as well. Whatsapp has network effects, and may one day have lock-in comparable to Chinese super apps (at least that's what's being worked towards). iMessage is the the main competitor here, because they are automatically installed on every iPhone
Misc
I think Facebook Marketplace, the Craigslist alternative benefits greatly from Facebook using real identities, and is an overall better product. If you want to sell something locally FB Marketplace is the best option, and I think it's a strong reason to have an account. Usage of Marketplace is growing.
The integration with Jio in India, and importance in Indian society is worth mentioning for Whatsapp.
Facebook Groups, have competition in the form of Reddit, and Discord. The edge here will be real identities, and the tools they are building to make moderating a Facebook group profitable (subscriptions, etc)
The only other pure "Real Identity social network" is Linkedin is a professional network.
Problems
No young people use Facebook? This seems to be a US centric cliche, as Facebook is popular among all age demographics around the world. According to Pew Research 76% of people 18-24 use Facebook, only superseded by Youtube. For teens in 2018, 51% of teens used Facebook which is good in my opinion for a social network not targeted to teens like Tik Tok. I personally think the utility of Facebook kicks in after college age, but regardless if there is a problem, I think the cure can be User Acquisition through hardware.
Chance of mass exodus? again, mitigated by the lock-in of hardware, but this is a concern of mine based on Facebook's reputation. 1. Privacy, there is truth to some criticism here, because Facebook's business model does depend on data collection, and in many ways is opposed to strict definitions of privacy, but much of it is also pushed by myth like "Facebook sells data". Facebook has the same business model as its advertising funded peers, but perception is what matters, and Facebook is losing the perception battle. 2. Politics, In my opinion has been half of Facebook's reputation problem. Recently Zuck said that they are trying to make Facebook less political by not recommending political groups, and lowering reach on political posts. Also, Donald Trump being gone should make the next 4 years less politically controversial. Since Facebook is in the business of advertising, and people can mostly say what they want, there's always the small chance of a #DeleteFacebook movement reaching critical mass based on these themes.
Being banned in countries? Mitigated by becoming a hardware player, but this is an unlikely outcome for many reasons that my hands are too tired to elaborate on.
Apple's privacy stance and iOS 14: The hit to revenue estimates I've seen are between 1%-7%, but it could also be a boost to revenue since third party signals being reduced will give the edge to whoever has the best first party signals, we'll have wait to see. This is something to watch closely, but transferring third party data into first party data by having ecommerce on the platform through initiatives like Facebooks shops, and Instagram shopping can be the cure. Also, being in control of hardware mitigates this risk
Antitrust- generally not concerned
Privacy as a theme that is adversarial to advertising - slightly concerned but I don't think ad funded business models are going anywhere, many people like not paying for things
Might add more to this later...
submitted by AquaVR to SecurityAnalysis [link] [comments]

Is Facebook's moat widening or shrinking? My unorganized thoughts, do you see any flaws?

Hardware:
I think the smartest defensive move Facebook can make at this stage is doing whatever it takes to become a major player in consumer hardware. Even if they breakeven, or lose money on this endeavor it can be treated as user acquisition costs for the people who wouldn't make a Facebook account otherwise, or as a way to make Facebook accounts as sticky as possible to protect against people leaving the platform. Anecdotally, I've seen people that have preached "Facebook is evil" for years, say that not they will not ever delete their newly open accounts because if they did their Oculus hardware wouldn't work, and they'd lose all of their purchases.
Facebook is dominating the growing VR market with an iron fist. Non-advertising revenue grew 156% in Q4, and IDC estimates 3 million Quest 2's were sold in Q4. Oculus Quest 2 has stellar reviews, despite the mandatory Facebook account for use. Facebook's VR devices also use Messenger for messages, Workplace for enterprise, and I believe Facebook Horizon (which is integrated with the FB app) will eventually be the place users load into initially, and launch third party apps from.
High investment cost makes it unlikely that other social media company can compete with Facebook in hardware (especially AVR), and this should give Facebook a permanent utility advantage against its peers. The companies that could compete, big tech, and gaming giants seem unwilling to make the investment to compete. I think they're aware that Facebook is completely fine making $0 to be dominant in the VR space, and that's scared them away in addition to facts like VR being a relatively small market for them.Apple is rumored to be considering a release of a Quest-like headset in later 2022, but the device will be priced far above $1000 according to Mark Gurman.
VR is where I'm most confident in Facebook's ability to achieve its hardware dreams, but consumer AR is also an area where its only competition in terms of investments made is Apple. So I think their chances there are decent too. Facebook is working on long term AR glasses, but is also releasing Smartglasses in collaboration with Luxottica (Ray-Ban and Oakley) this year. There's also Facebook's line of smart video chatting devices, Portal.
Traditionally Listed Moats
Intangible assets consisting of the vast amount of data users have shared: sustained and growing, but people are also sharing things about themselves on other apps increasingly.
Growth of users means network effects still growing
Number and diversity of advertisers, and advertiser verticals still growing
Competition?
There is rising social media competition, and always the threat of new entrants. That being said, competition seems to carve out niches, so they aren't competing as directly as we'd think. The closest thing to Facebook the Blue app, for connecting with family and friends is Instagram. Competing apps can have similar features, but the main utilities are different. Tik Tok is mostly a short video app, Youtube is a long video app, Twitter is a breaking news app, Reddit is a communities app, etc. Facebook's utility first and foremost is connecting with REAL people who's identity you can verify, like friends and family. Like previously mentioned, the closest competitor is Instagram.
Messaging
There can be lack of differentiation here, but Messenger tied to Facebook, Instagram, Portal and Oculus. I suspect it'll be tied to future hardware as well. Whatsapp has network effects, and may one day have lock-in comparable to Chinese super apps (at least that's what's being worked towards). iMessage is the the main competitor here, because they are automatically installed on every iPhone
Misc
I think Facebook Marketplace, the Craigslist alternative benefits greatly from Facebook using real identities, and is an overall better product. If you want to sell something locally FB Marketplace is the best option, and I think it's a strong reason to have an account. Usage of Marketplace is growing.
The integration with Jio in India, and importance in Indian society is worth mentioning for Whatsapp.
Facebook Groups, have competition in the form of Reddit, and Discord. The edge here will be real identities, and the tools they are building to make moderating a Facebook group profitable (subscriptions, etc)
The only other pure "Real Identity social network" is Linkedin is a professional network.
Problems
No young people use Facebook? This seems to be a US centric cliche, as Facebook is popular among all age demographics around the world. According to Pew Research 76% of people 18-24 use Facebook, only superseded by Youtube. For teens in 2018, 51% of teens used Facebook which is good in my opinion for a social network not targeted to teens like Tik Tok. I personally think the utility of Facebook kicks in after college age, but regardless if there is a problem, I think the cure can be User Acquisition through hardware.
Chance of mass exodus? again, mitigated by the lock-in of hardware, but this is a concern of mine based on Facebook's reputation. 1. Privacy, there is truth to some criticism here, because Facebook's business model does depend on data collection, and in many ways is opposed to strict definitions of privacy, but much of it is also pushed by myth like "Facebook sells data". Facebook has the same business model as its advertising funded peers, but perception is what matters, and Facebook is losing the perception battle. 2. Politics, In my opinion has been half of Facebook's reputation problem. Recently Zuck said that they are trying to make Facebook less political by not recommending political groups, and lowering reach on political posts. Also, Donald Trump being gone should make the next 4 years less politically controversial. Since Facebook is in the business of advertising, and people can mostly say what they want, there's always the small chance of a #DeleteFacebook movement reaching critical mass based on these themes.
Being banned in countries? Mitigated by becoming a hardware player, but this is an unlikely outcome for many reasons that my hands are too tired to elaborate on.
Apple's privacy stance and iOS 14: The hit to revenue estimates I've seen are between 1%-7%, but it could also be a boost to revenue since third party signals being reduced will give the edge to whoever has the best first party signals, we'll have wait to see. This is something to watch closely, but transferring third party data into first party data by having ecommerce on the platform through initiatives like Facebooks shops, and Instagram shopping can be the cure. Also, being in control of hardware mitigates this risk
Antitrust- generally not concerned
Privacy as a theme that is adversarial to advertising - slightly concerned but I don't think ad funded business models are going anywhere, many people like not paying for things
Might add more to this later...
submitted by AquaVR to investing [link] [comments]

Apple [AAPL] Stock Price Predictions | Buy or Sell AAPL? Apple [AAPL] Stock Price Target & Analysis

Should you buy Apple stock or has the company run out of growth opportunities? What is my price prediction for Apple in the next years? Read until the end as I reveal my price target for Apple and also what I think will happen in the next couple of days, weeks & months!
~ Warning! Very Very Long Post~
Hello everyone! So, let’s go over some of the latest news on Apple before moving on to some fundamental and technical analysis, predictions and my price target for the stock in the next years.
[Disclosure: I made this DD last month, but I wasn't part of this Subreddit until the last few days]
So, let’s start with the news that Apple will cut the App Store commission in half for small app developers starting in the next days, this will affect developers who earn less than $1M annually from the App Store Sales. This is likely to lead to a small decline in commission revenues for Apple as around 98% of the app developers will qualify for this tax reduction from 30% to 15%, but all these small developers only contribute to about 5% of the estimated $50B in annual revenues from the App Store, so that would be only a $1.25B loss for the company, that is less than half a % of the company’s total net sales in the last fiscal year.
Also, these changes may lead to a potential long-term revenue boost, as it is likely this will lead to an increasing creation of apps which will generate more commissions in return.
Alongside this we also saw the company releasing the new MacBook’s with their first in-house chip, which promises faster video and imaging processing times, with both CPU and GPU performance up to 2 times faster than the latest PC laptop chip using just a fraction of the power consumption, with both of the macbooks promising big improvements in battery life. Apple is also expected to roll out even more in-house chips in future products, as they have started the 2-year breakup with Intel chips.
We also saw Morgan Stanley upgrading their base case to $191 at the end of November, as they have cited record lead times, supply chain forecasts and carriers demand as they expect that the company will sell around 270M iPhone in fiscal year 2021, that’s 50M more than the consensus and almost 30M more than the previous estimate of Morgan Stanley, with an average selling price of 842$, 9% more than the base case, as people tend to chose the more expensive and high tech versions of the lineup in this new 5G cycle.
The 5G super-cycle, which I believe is on the way, and will continue in the next years, as 5G become more available worldwide, could still be the biggest thing coming right away for the company with 5G smartphones expected to surpass 4G sales by 2024, with the average sale price of the 5G phones also coming down, helping them become more popular. This will also be helped by the recent entry to the Indian market, as India will probably become the world biggest country in the next decade, this could be a huge opportunity for Apple to start and take away market-share from their competitors like Samsung and Xiaomi which have the biggest market shares right now.
They also released an update iPad Pro and an all-new iPad Air in September which will also boost sales in this work-from-home environment that will keep the demand very high for this kind of products, just like the Macs. Alongside the increasing demand from the Wearables, Home & Accessories that include Air Pods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, and many more products.
But the biggest reasons I believe Apple is poised for continued growth, is primarily due to its services business, as they start to offer more and more services like the Apple ONE BUNDLE, which include up to 6 services from (Apple Music, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, the new Apple Fitness+ and the iCloud service) for a pretty reasonable price in my opinion starting from 15$ up to 30$/month, this could be a great option for families and even individuals who use their services a lot.
The latest services, Fitness+ just launched in the past days, and is a direct competitor to the likes of Peloton, as the service is available on the iPhone, iPad or even Apple TV. This also makes consumers buy the Apple Watch which syncs to the other devices to show you different information. The Fitness+ app just on its own is 8$/month or 80$/year which is less expensive than Peloton subscription which charges 13$ or even traditional gyms like Planet Fitness at 10$/month.
I think this will be the fastest growing sector for the company, as this aligns with the new macro trends, as the world is moving more and more to a digital approach to almost everything as consumer preferences, with more & more younger people reaching the point in life when they use these services start to align to this increasing digital approach.
We also shouldn’t forget the Apple Card & Apple Pay service among many others which also seem to gain from the move to digital & contactless payments, as this has been accelerated due to the current situation in the past year.
And one last piece of news, and the most recent one, is that Apple may have fast-tracked the Titan project. The Titan project is targeting a 2024 or 2025 push to develop an electric vehicle with advanced battery technologies, that will deliver significant increases in range at much lower costs than the current technologies while also offering self-driving capabilities.
It’s reported they will not use the same technology as Tesla Full-Self-Driving feature, but will use LIDAR sensors, similar to those that we can find in the latest iPhone 12 PRO.
I think Apple can go 2 ways with this project, they can either use the huge amount of cash the company has to buy another car-maker like Ford, GM or any other car manufacturer expect Tesla and Toyota which do have a big market cap, so that they can fast-track the potential manufacturing of cars, or they can enter into a partnership with big companies like Tesla, Volkswagen or any other car marker to either produce cars or license their technology to this other car-makers which would ultimately and probably have higher margin-returns than the effective manufacturing of cars. Apple’s current overall gross margins stand at 38% vs the 15% average of the world top 10 automakers by market cap, which is significantly lower.
But this Apple Car thing is so far out, and there are so many unknowns, I will not try to predict anything related to this until there is more clarity on the subject.
And last, before moving on to some predictions, here are some of the highlights that we heard from the latest investors conference meeting, as the CEO, Tim Cook expressed optimism ahead with the launch of many new products and services, especially the Home Pod Mini and the new 5G iPhones, as these new iPhones include new LIDAR scanners that greatly improve the camera capabilities, as the iPhone as seen very positive reviews. We also saw the Senior VP and CFO, Luca Maestri give us great outlook for the company as they expect the installed devices base to continue to growth despite already being at an all-time high as they have over 585M paid subscriptions on their platforms and expect this to surpass 600M by the end of 2020.
I also researched and found what products we can see in the near future, with the first half of 2021 bringing new iMacs, the AirPods3 and the iPad Pro, while in the FALL event we will probably get the new iPhone 13 alongside the iPhone SE PLUS and the Watch Series 7 with more products coming later in 2021 or that don’t have an estimated release date like the Air Pods Pro, the Air Tags and the iPad Mini 6.
So, before even starting, you should know that I am bull on Apple but I am willing to hear other opinions so don’t be afraid to leave a comment down below.
I have made some predictions based on the growth rate of the company, the latest plans announced by them and used some estimates. So, keep in mind this are only projections and are calculated by myself, this is not an investment advice and you should do your own research.
This are my 2025 projections for Apple, let’s take a closer look at them, each on their own.
So, in term of revenues, Apple has 5 big sources of income, which saw an overall increase of 6% despite lagging sales in the iPhone. The biggest revenue is by far the iPhone right now with over $137B in revenue in the fiscal year ending in September. I expect to see the iPhone sales increasing in the next years, especially in 2021, with the new 5G iPhone creating a super-cycle for the company, as most iPhone users, including myself here, as I will upgrade from my iPhone X, will switch to this new product. The iPhone sales have decreased in the last couple of years by 14% and 3% as a result of the product not having big improvements, as well as iPhone usually starting to last longer than previous models, so I expect to see a 12% increase in sales next year and a gradual decrease in the growth of sales as more people upgrade, ending with just a 5% growth in iPhone sales in 2025.
The next revenues stream is from the Mac, which has seen an increase in the past 2years, with revenues topping $28B this year after the huge demand from the work from home consumers. I expect this trend to continue as they plan to continue to launch better products and I can see the company having a similar growth next year before starting to decline slightly until 2025, also ending with a 5% growth.
The iPad is currently the smallest revenue stream for Apple but has also seen an increase in demand in the past 2 years with a 13% average increase in revenues. I also expect the iPad to continue to grow in the next couple of years, especially with the learn-from-home environment for kids, and even after this period ends, the transformation for learning will implicate more digital usage. I expect the iPad to see some similar growth to the Macs, especially with the latest generation also bringing a new iPad air to the market.
The 4th revenue stream and the fastest growing in the past 2 years, with an average growth of 33% are the wearables, home & accessories revenues. This have topped $30B this year, as Apple has also just launched the Apple Watch series 6 and also feature other great products like Apple TV, the Air Pods the Home Pod and the Home Pod mini alongside other third-party accessories.
I gave this revenue stream a growth of 20% starting next year with a gradual decrease to around 8% by 2025, as I believe this will become more & more popular as they start to offer more vertical integration.
And last, but by no means least, the revenue stream that I expect to grow the most and the fastest is the revenue from the services that Apple offers. This includes revenues from Apple Care, Advertising, Cloud Services, Payment Services like Apple Card & Apple Pay and of course the digital content which includes fees from the App Store alongside subscription-based income including the new Apple One Bundle and Apple Fitness+ alongside the already know Apple Arcade, Apple Music, Apple News+, Apple TV+ and hopefully I don’t forget any others.
So, I expect this to become the clear 2nd biggest revenue stream for Apple by 2025, as I expect this to grow more than 20% next year, mainly due to the Apple One Bundle and Apple Fitness+ followed up by a slightly decreasing growth, ending with a 10% increase in revenues in 2025.
I think this are fairly conservative base case scenarios for the revenues, as I expect them to continue to increase the other revenue streams and not have such a large percentage of the revenues coming from the iPhone sales as you can see in this chart.
In terms of expenses, I pretty much kept the same margins as in previous years, with a 68% expense ratio on product sales [ iPhone / iPad / Mac / WHA ] and 35% expense ratio on SERVICES, as this are way more lucrative.
In the past 3 years, the products gross margin was 32.7%, so I actually imply bigger expenses for the manufacturing and sales of products, as this is mostly impacted by the company’s supplier’s ability to make up for and demand, while for the services revenue, the gross margins for the last 3 years has been 63.5% on average, but I expect this to be more in-line with the 66% margin in this past year. So, if services manage to grow to about half the revenues from the iPhone, this will effectively double the gross revenues, as every buck gained in the service revenues account for 2$ in the product sales.
So, I expect the total revenues for Apple to increase from $274B in 2020 to over $440B by 2025, increasing by approximately 10%/year, while I will keep the expense ratio pretty much in-line and have them increasing by 11%/year, this would bring the total gross income for Apple to $177B, increasing mainly due to the services revenues as I said earlier. This growth is just above the 4year average, and below the 2018 levels, which we might see again with this 5G super-cycle and explosive growth in the services revenue.
I also think the company will continue to invest in both Capital Expenditure and Operating expenses.
I think the operating expenses will remain pretty much in line with the previous years, as this number has increased by 1% annually both in R&D and SG&A. So, I will keep the exact percentages from previous years, as I expect the revenue to increase, thus I don’t see a big increase percentage wise. This would account for over $60B in operating expenses by 2025 and over $11B in Capital Expenditures by 2025, as I expect this to increase, mainly due to the possible EV developments or investments in self-driving capabilities alongside other manufacturing capabilities. You can see that the Capex spending has been decreasing in the past years with just over $8.8B in payments for business acquisitions and the other traditional Capex spending. Some people may use the cash generated by investing activities as Capex, but that is more unreliable. I also can see the Capex going back up, so I wanted to be safe and implied a 10% growth.
This money would account for over $73B in expenses and would bring the profit for the company to almost $104B before interest and taxes.
Moving on, let’s see what interest income and expenses the company has had in the past few years. We can see a decrease in interest expense in the past few years as the company has been paying off debt, but they have also been generating less money in this department, with an overall decrease in this department of more than 50% in the past year, way less than the amount from 2018. So, for safety reasons, I used a 10% decline in both income and expenses related to interest, while increasing the other losses by 10%/year.
This would bring the company pre-tax income to just over $104B in 2025.
Let’s move on to taxes. I know the Federal income tax rate is 21% for the company, but the actual effective tax rate for the company was lower than 15% in the past year, mainly due to lower tax-rates on foreign earnings alongside tax-benefits and tax-settlements. The average effective tax rate has been just over 16% in the past 3 years, but with more and more of the revenues coming from outside the US, I think it’s safe to say that the company will have around a 15% effective tax rate by 2025, this obviously if nothing major changes in tax policy around the world.
So, Apple would have $88.6B in income after tax by 2025 and with the current outstanding shares standing at just under 17B, so I don’t even account for the company probably continuing to do share buybacks, this would mean a $5.22 future earnings/share. And with today’s price for Apple just around 136$, that would mean to company is trading at just over 26 times forward price to earnings.
I don’t think Apple will ever trade at a discount again, with the current PE standing at over 40, I believe this will eventually go down, probably to around 35, despite the increase in services revenue, which is highly valued by investors. I think we can see Apple trade somewhere near 35 times P/E in 2025, especially if something big happens with the EV project, this could be even higher, just look at Tesla which trades at insane P/E. Of course, we also have to take into consideration the dividends that will be received from owning the stock, as Apple has started to pay dividends almost a decade ago and has 9 years of dividend growth, with a 10% annual rate of growth in the past 5 years. Here is the dividend growth history for the company, as I also went conservative on this estimate and implied a 7% growth for the next 2 years, 6% for 2023 and 2024 and just 5% in 2025.
So here are my 3 price targets for the company, including dividends but not reinvested. My bear case scenario is that Apple will trade at almost 165$ which implies a return of over 21% by 2025, while my base case scenario would see Apple trading at 195$ with a return of capital of 43%. I will also make the bull case for Apple trading at 225$ by 2025 with dividends included, which would imply just over 65% in gains by then.
I think this is possible as Apple has also continued to buy back shares of the company on a constant basis, as they continue to an impressive campaign with over $72B worth of common stock repurchased in 2020. They continue to buy back shares at a very fast pace, having repurchased over 1.3B shares in 2019 and 2018, while also issuing less stock every year.
So here is the full spreadsheet that I have projected for Apple by 2025 and the breakdown of everything i estimated [ 1 / 2 ] , if you do have another opinion or a suggestion please leave a comment down below, I think I have been conservative in most of my projections, but feel free to give your opinion.
Keep in mind, these targets might sound ridiculous, but just look at the growth Apple has had in the last 5years. The company has increased in value by more 400% in just the past 5years and is over 100.000% up since it started trading. So yes, the valuation is mad right now for the company. So, are you willing to bet against Apple?
The company also has pristine financials, with more than $65B in total assets compared to total liabilities, and more than $38B in cash and cash equivalents.
So, what do I expect in the next couple of days, weeks and months for Apple?
Let’s look at this CHART, so starting with the stock split, Apple saw a correction within the September stock market pullback, in a buy the news & sell the event, after a huge runup post-announcement of the stock split. The stock entered a consolidation period, and didn’t have any big catalysts, especially with new iPhone lineup not being included in the Q4 results due to the late launch. The stock found some levels of resistance near the $120 levels that it struggled to get past but acted also as support after breaking them just before the recent news of the possible EV developments or self-driving-features to be licensed to other car manufacturers. After that news the stock spiked and has now reached the previous highs made before the stock split and is facing some resistance, if the stock pushes over $140 I think we can officially say that it broke the resistance at those levels and is not just a fake-out. But I think it’s likely that the stock will consolidate between 122 and 135$ in the next weeks until the next iPhone sales and quarterly results are released, as the stock has entered overbought territory again with an RSI over 70, the first time since the stock split.
So, what would I do? Well, I own Apple stock, and I really believe this company will remain the biggest or one of the biggest in the future, so I would really add on any weakness that the stock shows before the next quarter earnings are released, as typically Q1 earnings are the best for the company due to increased holiday sales combined with the launch of new products. I think any entry below 130$ would be really nice to start and build a position or increase it if you already own the stock. As I believe Apple is one of the most stable stocks out there with large institutional holders like Vanguard, BlackRock and Berkshire owning over 900M shares each.
Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market!
Have a great day and see you next time!
submitted by 0toHeroInvesting to ValueInvesting [link] [comments]

[Barterverse] Wealth of Planets 4: Supply Chain

RoyalRoad
Index
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If at this point you're wondering if McDonald's can compete on planets where the dominant species is vegetarian (assuming they don't rely on trader traffic), that is a legitimate concern. Enter McDonald's India. Proving once again that meat isn't a prerequisite for an unhealthy diet.
Zakabaran System
Zoron was in love with her new Terra Two. Well, technically it was a lightly used one by one of Earth's corporations, but it was new to her. She had recently traded in her old Terra One and a sizable chunk of change from her bank account for this baby, and it was worth every credit.
It was fast, agile, and most importantly, the larger cargo space meant that she was making more credits every trip.
At first, she stuck to the large, popular routes. They required plenty of volume trucking, and the profits were steady and decent. The risk of a fruitless trip was nonexistent. The galaxy always needed goods from Earth, and Earth always had plenty of surplus.
Then, as she got more familiar with the more powerful trader apps and tools built right into her Terra Two dashboard, Zoron realized that she could use it to graph market listings on Traders Only right onto her routes and optimize her credits income. It would find many smaller ports that were willing to pay high prices for their less fulfilled demands.
One of those routes goes through Zakabara. It wasn't Zakabara Prime; it was one of their colonies. She had briefly read and then ignored the ship computer which gave her a warning that there's a Galactic Union travel advisory for that area, blinked into the system, and started steering her ship in the direction of the main spaceport on Second.
Less than five minutes into sublight, she was interrupted by a 200 kilometer warning on her radar about another ship merging into her path. The face of a large parrot appeared on her viewscreen, screeching:
"Unknown human ship! This area is off limits to all non-Zakabaran traders! Cease engines and get ready for bo-!"
He hadn't even finished his diatribe when she hit the blink engine to Ganymede.
"Back again so soon, Zoron?" A new voice, a human this time, came through her ship communication channel as her face loaded onto her screen, "which froghead was it this time?" The humans had kept a token reserve force here as a form of galactic community service.
They didn't need to commit many ships; just a few to let the pirates know they meant business. That's if there were still any left dumb enough to follow traders through blink now that everyone knew that human ships gathered here.
"Not the Ribbiths, it was the bird faces," Zoron made a face, "I was on my way to Zakabara Second, which had several postings on the market, but apparently their authorities really don't like outsiders today. Which explains the high prices of goods there, I guess."
"Ah," the human nodded sympathetically, "we've gotten a couple reports like that so far, and one even reported they saw a trader shipwreck from someone who must have tried to run their blockade. Be careful out there!"
Gophor, Gakrek
Rey woke up to the smell of potatoes. That was a first.
As she entered the dining room, she saw Grood standing around the new rice cooker that they hooked up to a battery for her, frowning and trying very hard to read the English instructions.
"Did they forget to translate it to Gak? I can help you with that," Rey volunteered and accepted the manual from Grood. She leaned over and saw that Grood had put rice on the bottom and potatoes on a small basket on top, and confused she asked, "they look cooked already. Grood, what's wrong?"
"I read the numbers, and I thought it said to put one cup of water for one cup of rice on the bottom, press the button, and wait after the light changes color to green," Grood complained.
"Yeah," Rey said, confirming the instructions in the booklet, "you got everything right."
"But it ruined the rice!"
"You mean it's not drenched in water like the way you normally cook it? This is what rice looks like whenever I cook it."
Frowning and completely ignoring what Rey said last, Grood said, "I guess I'll just put more water in next time."
That won't work, Rey realized. Like most rice cookers, this one detects the water remaining in the pot to tell when to stop cooking and change the color indicator. Putting more water in will just make it cook slightly longer.
Then again, this might buy them one more meal of not having to eat wet rice, so instead she said, "sure, Grood, that sounds like a plan!"
Gordorker's Farm
While waiting for employee training to start, Rey and Enrico decided to pay a visit to what they foresee as a vital component of their future supply chain.
A classic McDonald's hamburger has six ingredients: beef patty, ketchup, pickle slices, onions, mustard, and of course, the bun.
Ketchup and mustard were relatively easy to import by the barrel. They had few additional cargo requirements, and could store for a long time. Additionally, they require a lot of industrial processing and artificial ingredients that you don't want to think about too much when you eat them. Rey did not even consider these as possibilities for sourcing on Gakrek.
The hardest to import was the beef patty because it required a freezer in the spaceship. Unfortunately, there were no cows yet on Gakrek due to the immense water and startup food requirements of cattle farming. So, they dismissed it as a target for localizing early on as well.
Pickle slices and onions were raw produce and thus simple to make, but they were also relatively easy to import in bulk. Onions can last for months on a shelf and longer in a freezer, whereas pickles will basically last forever, especially the ones that have been treated by the chemicals they use. These were items considered for importation in the long term.
The last ingredient, the bun, was incredibly easy to make due to how much wheat had been grown on Gakrek with the semi-dwarf strains that have been imported from Earth. Furthermore, it was present on almost every single item on their menu. Which was why they're driving into Gordorker's farm to try and see if they could get him and his children to work with their restaurant as a supplier.
Enrico noted that his farm had grown a lot since he last visited. When the famine hit this valley, many families didn't make it. There was no shortage of land for Gordorker to work, and the only real bottleneck for him at the time was that he couldn't farm that much land alone to begin with.
With the investments he made early on in farming equipment and the increasing number of free laborers he had as his children grew older, his growing areas increased in size every time Enrico came.
As they drove up to the house with their two imported Toyota trucks, a number of Gordorker's curious children gathered around them. They tried to peek under the canvas that Enrico had put over the back of his truck to see what he was bringing, but he shushed them away.
Following them out of the house were Gordorker and two of his daughters they recognized, Ghili and Garns.
"Hey Enrico," Gordorker called out, "and is that your new girlfriend my daughters keep talking about?"
"Haha, Gordorker, nice to see you again," Enrico nodded in greeting, "this is Rey, my boss. Rey, Gordorker."
"Nice to meet you too," Rey nodded as well climbing out of her truck, "I've heard a lot of nice things about you too."
"Good, come into the house and tell us why you drove all the way out here!"
After a bit of small talk and his daughter left to go back to work, Enrico got right on to business. "Gordorker, you probably have heard about the food store we built on the spaceport. We expect to sell a lot of hamburgers, and we want to make them with bread buns from your farm."
"Bread buns? Is that very different from the bread that Ghili and Garns make?" Gordorker asked. After all, he was a farmer, not a baker.
"No, they're actually very similar. The base ingredient is grounded wheat flour, which you produce in your farm," Rey answered, "and the yeast, butter, and other ingredients that Gakrek already cheaply imports in bulk from Earth."
"I see," Gordorker replied, and then after a while he asked, "so why can't my daughters just make those for you right now?"
"They already can. Bun bread is a little harder to sell to other Gaks who are used to other kinds of bread," Rey said, "but the bigger problem is that we want to make sure that our bread tastes the same for all of our hamburgers, which means we have to have enough of your buns to start with."
"Ah so we don't make enough?" Gordorker asked, understanding the problem right away. He had been dealing with scaling issues himself on his farm, so he has become more astute in that aspect. Then, he proposed, "that is no issue, I can get more of my kids making bread. We will deliver you more bun breads, no problem, as long as there is a good price for them."
Enrico smiled and said, "that's great Gordorker, and we appreciate that, but based on what I heard talking to Garns, your wood fired oven would never bake enough bread for us, even if all your children were sitting around it waiting for the bread to finish all day."
"So what are you proposing?" asked the frowning Gordorker.
"We want to help you upgrade your baking operation until your daughters can bake so much bread they run out of flour," Rey said, "and then we're going to help you upgrade your grain mill, so you can get more flour faster. And then we're going to help you upgrade your farm, so you produce enough wheat for enough buns to support not only our restaurant but every future McDonald's store that gets built for hundreds of miles around."
They brought Gordorker back out to Enrico's truck, where they unloaded a small industrial oven they'd strap onto the back of the truck. It ran on electricity, and one of the Bhak batteries that Enrico had acquired could power it.
"Ah, I see," Gordorker smiled and said, finally getting it, "you're here to sell me this oven so we can bake more bread buns to sell you."
"Got it in one," Enrico beamed, "this model here, including the battery and shipping, is 2,500 credits. Our partners in Chicago have generously decided to subsidize a lot of your upgrades with a grant, so it will only cost you 500."
Then, pointing at the five electric-powered mills connected to a single power strip also connected to a battery, he introduced, "and these are electric mills for grinding wheat down into flour. They cost 500 credits each, and so these five will cost you 500 after we help you pay for some of it."
"I see," Gordorker said, running the numbers in his brain. Knowing how honest Enrico is, he believed that the prices and the discounts were real, so he could in theory take these and turn around and sell them for much higher prices at the market… but that would be wrong, and he would be killing off a major business opportunity here. "I am very interested in this. How much bread would you be buying from us?"
Rey chuckled kindly and said, "you've almost got it, Gordorker, but not quite. This whole operation isn't about how much bread we can buy; it's about how much bread you can make. We'll buy every single one."
Some more explanation took place regarding the price of each bun, and incentives for hitting quality and quantity targets. Because Rey was basically gifting him most of the machinery, she could basically set his profits, but she didn't want to squeeze every cent of profit she could out of Gordorker.
The point here was to give him enough room to get started, and to allow him to make enough profit to keep growing year after year. And whatever reasonable price she set, it was going to be cheaper than transporting it from Earth.
The first local Gakrek bun breads would be delivered to the Golden Arches a couple of weeks after their opening.
"Oh yeah, and one more thing," Enrico said. He tossed his truck keys to a surprised Ghili watching the discussion, "get in the driver's seat. I'm going to teach you how to drive."
Outskirts of Gophor Spaceport
If Goha could mark her fortunes on a chart, it would be divided straight into two parts: before the humans arrived, and after. Things didn't go well before.
Her parents were farmers, as their parents were. They had noticed the dropping yields of their crops for decades due to soil-damaging dry farming practices that ended up eroding the soil of its nutrients and water, but they hadn't understood why things were that bad at the time.
Then, the drought and the dust storms hit.
At first, they had just enough family heirlooms and other high-value supplies to trade for food at the spaceport. Then, as the famine started, fewer and fewer traders came in with food at the market, until none came. They began to starve. Goha's parents made the choice that their children should live instead of them, so they fed Goha and her siblings with all the food they had remaining. Until they ran out of strength and dropped.
That didn't save her siblings, who also starved to death shortly after.
Goha survived on hunting, foraging, and then eventually eating tree bark to sustain herself in the wild until she was captured by rogue Gaks turned cannibals by the famine. They were getting ready to roast her when everything changed.
The humans saved her from them, and drove her to a nearby village that they supplied with plenty of food.
From there and from her visits to the spaceport, she learned from the alien volunteers from Earth. She was fed. She was taught to read and write. And when she went back to her parents' farm to cremate the dead bodies of her family, two of them went with her to help her grieve her loss.
James and Charlotte, two elderly retired farmers from Idaho, came with her to help her start a new life.
At first, Goha thought they just wanted to take over her farm and start growing food for themselves there. Which was fine by her. She wasn't sure she wanted to continue the family business, and the humans saved her life. She wasn't going to say no to them if they wanted to just grow some crops on the farm.
Then, they insisted on including her in the process, teaching her everything from proper soil management, to irrigation, to using the new tools that were starting to be sold by the vendors at the spaceport.
They grew potatoes. Of all the major crops the humans grew, it was the one that needed the least water, which suited the now dry climate of Gakrek just fine. They imported a breed from James and Charlotte's home, one that required a bit more care and fertilizer than other potato breeds, but produced big beautiful tubers.
The first harvest was great. They had enough potatoes to feed the entire village if they had to. Pretty soon, her neighbors started coming by to learn potato techniques from her human friends who were now living with her. They, too, started to grow potatoes.
Charlotte taught them how to avoid problems, like allowing a disease called blight to wipe out everyone's crop all at once. She wasn't sure this was going to become a problem on Gakrek given how dry it was. But as she would often say, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. They left spaces between the different farmlands to isolate potentially bad crops if they popped up.
When the relief volunteers and her human friends left, every farmer in the entire northern outskirts of Gophor were planting one strain of Idaho potatoes or another. They formed a farmer's association, where they shared information on market prices, new techniques, and took turns selling at the spaceport.
Goha settled into a routine. Things were going great. The humans made things better.
"The rice is ruined again!" Grood whined.
She had put more water into the rice pot as she said she would, to predictable results. Because the rice cooker cooked longer than it should have, some rice around the edges had even gotten crispy brown.
"Mmmm," Enrico said happily as he dug out some of the slightly burnt rice straight into his chewing mouth, "this is delicious, Grood. I don't know what you're talking about!"
Grood ignored him. She was busy reading the instruction manual to see if there were any hidden insights on it that she missed at first reading.
Gophor Spaceport
Goha was carrying a big wheelbarrow of potato crops to sell at the spaceport when she noticed the large new permanent structure next to the food tents with its golden arches on the outside.
She slowly read the sign in front of the store. It said, "GRAND OPENING NEXT WEEK" in Gak.
Curious, Goha walked into the store, where she noticed a lot of activity going on in the back of the store. A short plump Gak came out and approached her yelling, "we're not open yet! Come back next week!"
"What is opening next week?" Goha asked, recognizing him from somewhere. Ah, the food tent.
"Our restaurant!" he replied, "I'm Goripli by the way!"
"Yeah, you're the soda farmer," Goha recalled, "I'm Goha."
"Ah, of course, the potato vendor!" he said, smiling. He'd recognized her too and said, "I'm helping train some of our other employees in the kitchen, and we're going to have a great big opening next week and start selling food!"
"Oh, that's very interesting," Goha said politely. Then, what she read on the menu they were putting up piqued her actual interest. She asked, a little afraid of the answer, "fried potatoes? You're going to sell potatoes here too?"
Goha generally didn't mind competition from the other farmers; the Gaks had plenty of appetite for potatoes, and she sold more than enough to pad her growing credit balance. But she counted more than ten Gaks in the back and the colorful signs they were putting up looked like they were going to start selling A LOT of potatoes.
"Yeah! We import them from Earth," Goripli replied enthusiastically, "they come to us in frozen bags, and all we have to do is cook them!"
Goha was conflicted. On one hand, her potatoes were originally from Earth too, and she loved the humans. On the other hand, these guys weren't part of her farmer's association, and she didn't want to be put out of business by a bunch of new vendors from the spaceport.
"How much are you selling fried potatoes for?" she asked, stalling so she could get a handle on her thoughts.
"Well they're usually sold as part of a meal, but alone, they would be a little over 2 credits in our boxes," Goripli replied, pointing to a stack of small red boxes on a shelf in the back of the restaurant.
Goha internally breathed a sigh of relief. Two credits for that small container! That was at least twenty times the price of her potatoes. There's no way that other Gaks were going to buy their fried potatoes over hers in the food tent. She cautiously said, "that seems a bit pricey."
"Yeah, we have to import them all the way from Earth," he replied, "but I've heard Enrico say we're looking for suppliers for bread." His brain whirred while he connected some dots in there, and then added, "Goha, you sell potatoes! You should talk to Rey and Enrico, maybe they'll buy potatoes from you?"
"Buy potatoes from me? Why would they buy potatoes from me here and then sell them for so much more money right next doors? Who would buy that?" she asked. She'd never heard of this kind of business before, but she knew Enrico. If he was behind an idea, it was probably not a bad one.
"We cut and cook them for customers!" Goripli said. He was used to answering questions like these for the locals, "and expensive as the prices are, the traders from outer space have a lot of credits, and they will buy from us!"
"Anyway, wait here. I'm going to go get Enrico upstairs. Maybe he would be interested in your potatoes."
Enrico was showing two Gaks how to properly clean the nozzles on their soda fountain machines when Goripli came up, yelling at him from the stairs, "hey Enrico, there's a potato farmer downstairs."
"A potato farmer?" he asked, confused.
"Yeah," Goripli replied, "didn't you say last week the imported fried potatoes were costing us many credits because they need to be frozen in the spaceship? She's a local farmer, and she sells for much less."
Okay, that is a frightening amount of initiative for a soda merchant turned fast food worker, Enrico thought to himself. Then he said, "alright, I'm coming."
Upon seeing Goha, Enrico's eyes lit up, "ah, it's Goha, isn't it? Nice to see you again."
"Hi Enrico," she blushed. She didn't expect the human to remember her name. "Goripli said you're going to start selling potatoes here too?"
Sensing her trepidation, he quickly replied, "fried potatoes. We're not selling potatoes like you. We're going to sell fried ones to traders already cooked so they can just grab lunch here."
"Ah," she replied, her fears mildly assuaged and sensing opportunity, "Goripli said you might be interested in buying my potatoes to cook, I think?"
"Hmmm, we need a lot of potatoes, yes, but we buy them in bulk from Earth. We don't do small volume. So unless you have a lot more potatoes to sell and we get a machine to cut them…" Enrico trailed off, hoping she'd get the message.
"I see," Goha said, "how much is bulk?"
North Gophor Farmers Association Meeting
"… and so I did some math on the number of potatoes we grow," Goha concluded, "and we have enough that they would buy from us if we pooled all of our harvests together and sold it to them together."
The concept of wholesaling was new to many of the dozens of farmers at the meeting. Most of the time, the way they did business was they just brought a big sack of potatoes to the food tents at the spaceport, sold it all one by one, and then went home.
The idea that they wouldn't have to wait all day at the vendor tents, that they could just dump it all to a single willing buyer… it was an attractive one. Even if it would mean giving up their opportunity to haggle for a higher price with every customer.
"How much are they offering us?" one farmer asked.
"It's not a fixed set price for each bag of potatoes. Enrico said they would set the price at a point where we would make a profit," Goha replied honestly, echoing his words from earlier.
There was a murmur through the crowd. This was crazy. Let the buyers set the price? Even if it was Enrico, which many of them knew… There's no way that this is a legitimate enterprise, some thought.
"This sounds like a scam," a farmer said, "they'll just pay us the least amount of money possible!"
"Yeah! How are we supposed to run a business without knowing how much money they're going to pay us?" another farmer asked the question that was on everyone's minds.
"It's called an open-book contract," Goha repeated. She wasn't entirely sold on the idea at first, but came around to it when Enrico explained more of how it worked, "we tell them how much it cost us to grow potatoes, and they pay us twice that amount when we hand them the goods."
Some of the objections died down as the farmers started calculating their costs and normal pricing strategies. They could double their initial investment! Every harvest possibly. Many farmers got more serious about the offer. It meant that as long as Enrico's restaurant bought from them, it was unlikely that they wouldn't make a larger profit, even in a below average year. Especially in a below average year.
"And you say they'll buy all our potatoes?" one hesitant farmer asked.
"They have a rule that all the potatoes have to be longer than your paws because they want to cut long strips out of them," Goha gestured with an open paw, "but other than that, Enrico said he would take as many potatoes as we can grow."
"How would they know whether we're telling the truth about how much it cost us to grow the potatoes?" one particularly devious farmer asked slyly, oblivious to the disapproving glares some of his fellow farmers were throwing his way.
"Gomin!" one of his neighbors called out, "If you try to cheat the humans and drive away our business, we're going to be the first to come burn down your farm!"
And so, it was decided for most of them. There were more negotiations with the restaurant regarding the logistics of when and how the potatoes were to be delivered, and they had to import a cutting machine to quickly cut strips of fries out of the potatoes, but they had gotten the supply chain replacement approved in Chicago.
The first local Gakrek potatoes would be delivered to the Golden Arches a couple of months after their opening.
"Aha, I figured it out," Grood claimed triumphantly.
Rey looked over at her dinner. It was, as expected, wet rice. She wasn't sure how that was possible with the foolproof rice cooker that Enrico had gotten Grood. It had specifically been a model that vented the steam in a way that made wet rice impossible. They were both tired of porridge. She asked warily, "how'd you manage it, Grood?"
"It's simple. I figured out how this machine works! It keeps cooking until all the water is gone, so it always comes out too dry," Grood explained, waving her spatula around like a teacher, "all you have to do is put in twice the amount of water it says to. And then, you wait until it's half done cooking off all the water, and you lift the lid…"
Rey saw Enrico repeatedly slap his palm up into his forehead right next to her.
It must be a law of nature, she realized. It is physically impossible to create a cooking device that prevents a Gak from making rice the way they wanted to.
"The potatoes will arrive in a couple of months," Enrico said as he laid down on his straw mat, "the farmers are gonna sell us all that they can grow."
"Good," Rey replied, "and they can keep the small ones for themselves to sell to other Gaks."
"Right, they've got enough of those that there won't be another famine if there's a bad harvest year again. And we gotta find a way to boost their production because what they have is barely enough for our restaurant, not to mention the other franchises headquarters mentioned they were looking at."
After a bit of silent pondering in her head, Rey said, "I can't sleep," turning on her side to face Enrico, "what if nobody shows up when we open tomorrow?"
"We did everything we possibly could, right?" he asked.
"Yeah, I think so," she said, still fretting, "all our preparations should be in place but what if only fifty people showed up-"
"Then it's out of our hands," Enrico said sleepily and yawned hard. It had been a long day of negotiations and training the employees for him.
"Hold my hand," Rey said as she snaked her arm out of her sleeping bag and extended it towards him. Enrico took it in his warm palms, and threaded his fingers into hers. They both laid like that for a while.
A few minutes of staring at the ceiling, Rey asked, "Enrico, when all this calms down, do you think-" She looked over at him shyly, trying to decide what to say next.
He was already asleep.
Langley, Earth
"Isn't this kind of what we want to see?" Cathy asked, frowning at the report in front of her. There was a map of hundreds of armed Zakabaran ships dotted throughout their system and subsequent pages detailing coordinates and general specifications of every single ship they had. "If they're preparing for war with someone, wouldn't there be more ships staging outside the system? Many of these don't even appear to have FTL drives…"
"Look closer at where their deployments are in their system," Mark said.
She took another look. There were a few ships loitering around Prime, whereas the remaining of them are clustered around…
"Their colony! They're getting ready to start a war with their own colony?" Cathy asked, astonished.
"Well, it wouldn't be a war. The guys on the colony don't have military ships," Mark said, "this is looking more like it'll be an occupation for the Primers to ensure that their colony doesn't just keep funneling their goods and credits out of the system into the rest of the galaxy."
"And we can't exactly intervene now after we explicitly promised not to do so at the Galactic Union," Cathy summed up in a disappointed tone, "not that we would have done much anyway given that it is their colony still. When do we expect the siege to start?"
"If what we're hearing from the traders is accurate, they're already blockading the space above Zakabara Second," Mark sighed, "that's why they even bothered to disclose their deployments."
"Isn't blockading another planet considered an act of war explicitly banned by the Galactic Union? How does this even work if they're the same species?"
"That," Mark said ominously, "is the million credit question…"
The McDonald's anecdotes for economic development and supply chain building from this chapter and last were adapted from a management paper from Wharton called "McDonald's — Much Maligned, but an Engine of Economic Development" along with some additional digging in the WSJ and NYT.
One of my readers also directed my attention to a series of YouTube videos called Food Theory. I recommend that as well.
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Apple [AAPL] Stock Price Predictions | Buy or Sell AAPL? Apple [AAPL] Stock Price Target & Analysis

Should you buy Apple stock or has the company run out of growth opportunities? What is my price prediction for Apple in the next years? Read until the end as I reveal my price target for Apple and also what I think will happen in the next couple of days, weeks & months!
~ Warning! Very Very Long Post~
Hello everyone! So, let’s go over some of the latest news on Apple before moving on to some fundamental and technical analysis, predictions and my price target for the stock in the next years.
So, let’s start with the news that Apple will cut the App Store commission in half for small app developers starting in the next days, this will affect developers who earn less than $1M annually from the App Store Sales. This is likely to lead to a small decline in commission revenues for Apple as around 98% of the app developers will qualify for this tax reduction from 30% to 15%, but all these small developers only contribute to about 5% of the estimated $50B in annual revenues from the App Store, so that would be only a $1.25B loss for the company, that is less than half a % of the company’s total net sales in the last fiscal year.
Also, these changes may lead to a potential long-term revenue boost, as it is likely this will lead to an increasing creation of apps which will generate more commissions in return.
Alongside this we also saw the company releasing the new MacBook’s with their first in-house chip, which promises faster video and imaging processing times, with both CPU and GPU performance up to 2 times faster than the latest PC laptop chip using just a fraction of the power consumption, with both of the macbooks promising big improvements in battery life. Apple is also expected to roll out even more in-house chips in future products, as they have started the 2-year breakup with Intel chips.
We also saw Morgan Stanley upgrading their base case to $191 at the end of November, as they have cited record lead times, supply chain forecasts and carriers demand as they expect that the company will sell around 270M iPhone in fiscal year 2021, that’s 50M more than the consensus and almost 30M more than the previous estimate of Morgan Stanley, with an average selling price of 842$, 9% more than the base case, as people tend to chose the more expensive and high tech versions of the lineup in this new 5G cycle.
The 5G super-cycle, which I believe is on the way, and will continue in the next years, as 5G become more available worldwide, could still be the biggest thing coming right away for the company with 5G smartphones expected to surpass 4G sales by 2024, with the average sale price of the 5G phones also coming down, helping them become more popular. This will also be helped by the recent entry to the Indian market, as India will probably become the world biggest country in the next decade, this could be a huge opportunity for Apple to start and take away market-share from their competitors like Samsung and Xiaomi which have the biggest market shares right now.
They also released an update iPad Pro and an all-new iPad Air in September which will also boost sales in this work-from-home environment that will keep the demand very high for this kind of products, just like the Macs. Alongside the increasing demand from the Wearables, Home & Accessories that include Air Pods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, and many more products.
But the biggest reasons I believe Apple is poised for continued growth, is primarily due to its services business, as they start to offer more and more services like the Apple ONE BUNDLE, which include up to 6 services from (Apple Music, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, the new Apple Fitness+ and the iCloud service) for a pretty reasonable price in my opinion starting from 15$ up to 30$/month, this could be a great option for families and even individuals who use their services a lot.
The latest services, Fitness+ just launched in the past days, and is a direct competitor to the likes of Peloton, as the service is available on the iPhone, iPad or even Apple TV. This also makes consumers buy the Apple Watch which syncs to the other devices to show you different information. The Fitness+ app just on its own is 8$/month or 80$/year which is less expensive than Peloton subscription which charges 13$ or even traditional gyms like Planet Fitness at 10$/month.
I think this will be the fastest growing sector for the company, as this aligns with the new macro trends, as the world is moving more and more to a digital approach to almost everything as consumer preferences, with more & more younger people reaching the point in life when they use these services start to align to this increasing digital approach.
We also shouldn’t forget the Apple Card & Apple Pay service among many others which also seem to gain from the move to digital & contactless payments, as this has been accelerated due to the current situation in the past year.
And one last piece of news, and the most recent one, is that Apple may have fast-tracked the Titan project. The Titan project is targeting a 2024 or 2025 push to develop an electric vehicle with advanced battery technologies, that will deliver significant increases in range at much lower costs than the current technologies while also offering self-driving capabilities.
It’s reported they will not use the same technology as Tesla Full-Self-Driving feature, but will use LIDAR sensors, similar to those that we can find in the latest iPhone 12 PRO.
I think Apple can go 2 ways with this project, they can either use the huge amount of cash the company has to buy another car-maker like Ford, GM or any other car manufacturer expect Tesla and Toyota which do have a big market cap, so that they can fast-track the potential manufacturing of cars, or they can enter into a partnership with big companies like Tesla, Volkswagen or any other car marker to either produce cars or license their technology to this other car-makers which would ultimately and probably have higher margin-returns than the effective manufacturing of cars. Apple’s current overall gross margins stand at 38% vs the 15% average of the world top 10 automakers by market cap, which is significantly lower.
But this Apple Car thing is so far out, and there are so many unknowns, I will not try to predict anything related to this until there is more clarity on the subject.
And last, before moving on to some predictions, here are some of the highlights that we heard from the latest investors conference meeting, as the CEO, Tim Cook expressed optimism ahead with the launch of many new products and services, especially the Home Pod Mini and the new 5G iPhones, as these new iPhones include new LIDAR scanners that greatly improve the camera capabilities, as the iPhone as seen very positive reviews. We also saw the Senior VP and CFO, Luca Maestri give us great outlook for the company as they expect the installed devices base to continue to growth despite already being at an all-time high as they have over 585M paid subscriptions on their platforms and expect this to surpass 600M by the end of 2020.
I also researched and found what products we can see in the near future, with the first half of 2021 bringing new iMacs, the AirPods3 and the iPad Pro, while in the FALL event we will probably get the new iPhone 13 alongside the iPhone SE PLUS and the Watch Series 7 with more products coming later in 2021 or that don’t have an estimated release date like the Air Pods Pro, the Air Tags and the iPad Mini 6.
So, before even starting, you should know that I am bull on Apple but I am willing to hear other opinions so don’t be afraid to leave a comment down below.
I have made some predictions based on the growth rate of the company, the latest plans announced by them and used some estimates. So, keep in mind this are only projections and are calculated by myself, this is not an investment advice and you should do your own research.
This are my 2025 projections for Apple, let’s take a closer look at them, each on their own.
So, in term of revenues, Apple has 5 big sources of income, which saw an overall increase of 6% despite lagging sales in the iPhone. The biggest revenue is by far the iPhone right now with over $137B in revenue in the fiscal year ending in September. I expect to see the iPhone sales increasing in the next years, especially in 2021, with the new 5G iPhone creating a super-cycle for the company, as most iPhone users, including myself here, as I will upgrade from my iPhone X, will switch to this new product. The iPhone sales have decreased in the last couple of years by 14% and 3% as a result of the product not having big improvements, as well as iPhone usually starting to last longer than previous models, so I expect to see a 12% increase in sales next year and a gradual decrease in the growth of sales as more people upgrade, ending with just a 5% growth in iPhone sales in 2025.
The next revenues stream is from the Mac, which has seen an increase in the past 2years, with revenues topping $28B this year after the huge demand from the work from home consumers. I expect this trend to continue as they plan to continue to launch better products and I can see the company having a similar growth next year before starting to decline slightly until 2025, also ending with a 5% growth.
The iPad is currently the smallest revenue stream for Apple but has also seen an increase in demand in the past 2 years with a 13% average increase in revenues. I also expect the iPad to continue to grow in the next couple of years, especially with the learn-from-home environment for kids, and even after this period ends, the transformation for learning will implicate more digital usage. I expect the iPad to see some similar growth to the Macs, especially with the latest generation also bringing a new iPad air to the market.
The 4th revenue stream and the fastest growing in the past 2 years, with an average growth of 33% are the wearables, home & accessories revenues. This have topped $30B this year, as Apple has also just launched the Apple Watch series 6 and also feature other great products like Apple TV, the Air Pods the Home Pod and the Home Pod mini alongside other third-party accessories.
I gave this revenue stream a growth of 20% starting next year with a gradual decrease to around 8% by 2025, as I believe this will become more & more popular as they start to offer more vertical integration.
And last, but by no means least, the revenue stream that I expect to grow the most and the fastest is the revenue from the services that Apple offers. This includes revenues from Apple Care, Advertising, Cloud Services, Payment Services like Apple Card & Apple Pay and of course the digital content which includes fees from the App Store alongside subscription-based income including the new Apple One Bundle and Apple Fitness+ alongside the already know Apple Arcade, Apple Music, Apple News+, Apple TV+ and hopefully I don’t forget any others.
So, I expect this to become the clear 2nd biggest revenue stream for Apple by 2025, as I expect this to grow more than 20% next year, mainly due to the Apple One Bundle and Apple Fitness+ followed up by a slightly decreasing growth, ending with a 10% increase in revenues in 2025.
I think this are fairly conservative base case scenarios for the revenues, as I expect them to continue to increase the other revenue streams and not have such a large percentage of the revenues coming from the iPhone sales as you can see in this chart.
In terms of expenses, I pretty much kept the same margins as in previous years, with a 68% expense ratio on product sales [ iPhone / iPad / Mac / WHA ] and 35% expense ratio on SERVICES, as this are way more lucrative.
In the past 3 years, the products gross margin was 32.7%, so I actually imply bigger expenses for the manufacturing and sales of products, as this is mostly impacted by the company’s supplier’s ability to make up for and demand, while for the services revenue, the gross margins for the last 3 years has been 63.5% on average, but I expect this to be more in-line with the 66% margin in this past year. So, if services manage to grow to about half the revenues from the iPhone, this will effectively double the gross revenues, as every buck gained in the service revenues account for 2$ in the product sales.
So, I expect the total revenues for Apple to increase from $274B in 2020 to over $440B by 2025, increasing by approximately 10%/year, while I will keep the expense ratio pretty much in-line and have them increasing by 11%/year, this would bring the total gross income for Apple to $177B, increasing mainly due to the services revenues as I said earlier. This growth is just above the 4year average, and below the 2018 levels, which we might see again with this 5G super-cycle and explosive growth in the services revenue.
I also think the company will continue to invest in both Capital Expenditure and Operating expenses.
I think the operating expenses will remain pretty much in line with the previous years, as this number has increased by 1% annually both in R&D and SG&A. So, I will keep the exact percentages from previous years, as I expect the revenue to increase, thus I don’t see a big increase percentage wise. This would account for over $60B in operating expenses by 2025 and over $11B in Capital Expenditures by 2025, as I expect this to increase, mainly due to the possible EV developments or investments in self-driving capabilities alongside other manufacturing capabilities. You can see that the Capex spending has been decreasing in the past years with just over $8.8B in payments for business acquisitions and the other traditional Capex spending. Some people may use the cash generated by investing activities as Capex, but that is more unreliable. I also can see the Capex going back up, so I wanted to be safe and implied a 10% growth.
This money would account for over $73B in expenses and would bring the profit for the company to almost $104B before interest and taxes.
Moving on, let’s see what interest income and expenses the company has had in the past few years. We can see a decrease in interest expense in the past few years as the company has been paying off debt, but they have also been generating less money in this department, with an overall decrease in this department of more than 50% in the past year, way less than the amount from 2018. So, for safety reasons, I used a 10% decline in both income and expenses related to interest, while increasing the other losses by 10%/year.
This would bring the company pre-tax income to just over $104B in 2025.
Let’s move on to taxes. I know the Federal income tax rate is 21% for the company, but the actual effective tax rate for the company was lower than 15% in the past year, mainly due to lower tax-rates on foreign earnings alongside tax-benefits and tax-settlements. The average effective tax rate has been just over 16% in the past 3 years, but with more and more of the revenues coming from outside the US, I think it’s safe to say that the company will have around a 15% effective tax rate by 2025, this obviously if nothing major changes in tax policy around the world.
So, Apple would have $88.6B in income after tax by 2025 and with the current outstanding shares standing at just under 17B, so I don’t even account for the company probably continuing to do share buybacks, this would mean a $5.22 future earnings/share. And with today’s price for Apple just around 136$, that would mean to company is trading at just over 26 times forward price to earnings.
I don’t think Apple will ever trade at a discount again, with the current PE standing at over 40, I believe this will eventually go down, probably to around 35, despite the increase in services revenue, which is highly valued by investors. I think we can see Apple trade somewhere near 35 times P/E in 2025, especially if something big happens with the EV project, this could be even higher, just look at Tesla which trades at insane P/E. Of course, we also have to take into consideration the dividends that will be received from owning the stock, as Apple has started to pay dividends almost a decade ago and has 9 years of dividend growth, with a 10% annual rate of growth in the past 5 years. Here is the dividend growth history for the company, as I also went conservative on this estimate and implied a 7% growth for the next 2 years, 6% for 2023 and 2024 and just 5% in 2025.
So here are my 3 price targets for the company, including dividends but not reinvested. My bear case scenario is that Apple will trade at almost 165$ which implies a return of over 21% by 2025, while my base case scenario would see Apple trading at 195$ with a return of capital of 43%. I will also make the bull case for Apple trading at 225$ by 2025 with dividends included, which would imply just over 65% in gains by then.
I think this is possible as Apple has also continued to buy back shares of the company on a constant basis, as they continue to an impressive campaign with over $72B worth of common stock repurchased in 2020. They continue to buy back shares at a very fast pace, having repurchased over 1.3B shares in 2019 and 2018, while also issuing less stock every year.
So here is the full spreadsheet that I have projected for Apple by 2025 and the breakdown of everything i estimated [ 1 / 2 ] , if you do have another opinion or a suggestion please leave a comment down below, I think I have been conservative in most of my projections, but feel free to give your opinion.
Keep in mind, these targets might sound ridiculous, but just look at the growth Apple has had in the last 5years. The company has increased in value by more 400% in just the past 5years and is over 100.000% up since it started trading. So yes, the valuation is mad right now for the company. So, are you willing to bet against Apple?
The company also has pristine financials, with more than $65B in total assets compared to total liabilities, and more than $38B in cash and cash equivalents.
So, what do I expect in the next couple of days, weeks and months for Apple?
Let’s look at this CHART, so starting with the stock split, Apple saw a correction within the September stock market pullback, in a buy the news & sell the event, after a huge runup post-announcement of the stock split. The stock entered a consolidation period, and didn’t have any big catalysts, especially with new iPhone lineup not being included in the Q4 results due to the late launch. The stock found some levels of resistance near the $120 levels that it struggled to get past but acted also as support after breaking them just before the recent news of the possible EV developments or self-driving-features to be licensed to other car manufacturers. After that news the stock spiked and has now reached the previous highs made before the stock split and is facing some resistance, if the stock pushes over $140 I think we can officially say that it broke the resistance at those levels and is not just a fake-out. But I think it’s likely that the stock will consolidate between 122 and 135$ in the next weeks until the next iPhone sales and quarterly results are released, as the stock has entered overbought territory again with an RSI over 70, the first time since the stock split.
So, what would I do? Well, I own Apple stock, and I really believe this company will remain the biggest or one of the biggest in the future, so I would really add on any weakness that the stock shows before the next quarter earnings are released, as typically Q1 earnings are the best for the company due to increased holiday sales combined with the launch of new products. I think any entry below 130$ would be really nice to start and build a position or increase it if you already own the stock. As I believe Apple is one of the most stable stocks out there with large institutional holders like Vanguard, BlackRock and Berkshire owning over 900M shares each.
Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market!
Have a great day and see you next time!
submitted by 0toHeroInvesting to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Taking up a traditional musical instrument to play sea shanties and sea songs (for total novices or experienced musicians)

What with the current fascination with sea shanties and sea songs, I figured that some folks might be interested in trying out the musical instruments of Western sailors of the 1800s and early 1900s. While a classic shanty tended to be sung just with vocals, sailors played a variety of musical instruments popular in their eras, and in the Folk Revivals of the mid 1900s, lots of musicians did fine work adding instrumentation to the old tunes.
Maybe you’re an experienced musician looking to try a new sound after discovering sea songs, or maybe you’ve never played a note and hearing these great old tunes has inspired you to learn. In whatever case, in this little write-up I’m going to lay out some of the traditional instruments of the era which were favored by sailors, and explain for each how affordable and easy to learn they can be, and link you in some examples to listen to and places to learn more about each instrument.
I’m not a PhD musicologist, but I do have a lot of research background, been playing traditional music for over 30 years, and have a general handle on the scene and the era. And I have for over a decade done little projects online to encourage people to push their boundaries and break away from the mainstream by trying musical instruments beyond the most common ones. Being entranced by a new genre of music is a fine time to further expand your horizons by taking up an instrument and making music yourself.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

WINDS * Tinwhistle * Flute (and piccolo and fife) * Trumpet
STRINGS * Guitar * Banjo (and banjo ukulele) * Fiddle * Mandolin * Ukulele
FREE REEDS * Harmonica * Concertina * Melodeon/Button Accordion * (Toy Accordion/Melodeon)
PERCUSSION * Drums * (Bodhrán)
NOT TRADITIONAL SAILOR INSTRUMENTS, BUT WOULD SOUND AWESOME WITH SHANTIES * Appalachian/Mountain dulcimer * Udu or Ibo drum * Bagpipe * Electronic Instruments
I will note before we begin, especially in the budget category, there are some real bargains but plenty of junk, so please use this article as a starting point, but read up a little on best buys. Don’t just say “oh, I dig Irish flute, and I see a new one on eBay for $50, sounds like a bargain!” and buy it without doing a little research, or you’ll get stuck wasting time and money on unplayable junk. All the more so for used instruments, which can offer great savings, but you really want to buy from a reputable dealer or a musician, or have an ironclad strategy for DIY repair, lest you get something too out of whack to learn on and too pricey to repair. Plenty of bargains, just don’t get impulsive, do just a little research before each purchase and you’ll be glad you did. There are online communities full of geeks like me for each of these instruments, who'd be happy to chat with you about choosing a good one for your money, and how you can best learn to play.
We’re looking largely at the instruments of seafaring European (and diaspora) folk of the 1800s and early 1900s, which you can note largely resembled the instruments of the working class on land, farmers and city laborers, just with an eye towards durability and portability at sea. Fortunately, many of these instruments are relatively affordable, intuitive to learn (they had to be, to catch on with a largely illiterate population that just wanted to get to playing music without fuss), and often rugged and compact for travel. I realized after I finished this article that all these instruments can be learned by ear and video without formal written study, and (with the exception of fiddle) beginner tutorials for them are written in “tablature” (numbers that say where your fingers go) rather than sheet music, making them even easier to learn for total novices.
WINDS
Wind instruments had the huge advantage of being relatively compact, simple, and affordable, and some of them had a dual purpose for signaling or for military music, or just being heard above the noise of work and waves to keep a rhythm for work or dancing.
Tinwhistle
A tinwhistle is a small metal pipe with six finger-holes, and a whistle-like mouthpiece that directs the breath onto a sharp edge that produces the note. Like a referee’s whistle but with control of the notes.
The great thing about tinwhistle is you can get a totally serviceable instrument for literally $9 or so; they’re just that cheap to make. There are professional Irish musicians who spend decades playing $9 whistles (often doing a little fine-tuning on their own to smooth them out), so they’re by no means just toys. Even if you aren’t in a hurry to learn, honestly at that price you might as well pick one up next time you’re shopping online, and give it a whirl. An instrument you could own for life for the price of a decent 6-pack. The subreddit tinwhistle can provide advice and resources, and off-Reddit there’s the specialized Chiff and Fipple Forum.
If you buy a tinwhistle as a beginner, absolutely get one in the Key of D (the most common key), because 99% of teaching materials are for D, the common key for Irish music. (You'll notice an Irish crossover trend in much of this advice). There are some tutorials for shanties online, but honestly best bet would be to use some of the tutorials for Irish tunes just to learn the basics, and then you’ll swiftly be able to transition to learning other genres by ear.
"Drunken Sailor" tinwhistle duet with concertina
Flute (including piccolo and fife)
The flute is of course a tube where you blow across a hole to make a note. Most of us have seen the classical flute in videos, silver with all those fancy mechanical keys, but the flutes of the 1800s were largely wooden and had few or no keys, just open finger-holes like the tinwhistle. In the modern day, such “simple flutes” are largely associated with folk music, especially Irish, so there are plenty on the market, including affordable ones made of synthetic materials or metals. Just don't be seduced by import "rosewood" cheapies, they're junk, one made of PVC pipe by an actual musician would be a better buy than those wall-hangers.
I made a post on Chiff and Fipple asking about affordable flutes and fifes, and got some good options under $50 for some really simple plastic tube instruments of decent make, and some finer Irish flutes turned from synthetics around $250. Flutes come in a variety of sizes, but like tinwhistles the easiest way to learn is using Irish music tutorials and then adding nautical repertoire once you have the basics down, so again probably get Key of D.
You can get a Low D flute about 2 feet long, or a High D flute (known as a fife or piccolo, or band flute) an octave above, the same rough size and pitch as a tinwhistle, just different method of blowing. The Low D instruments are pretty similar to each other, but for High D ("fife/piccolo/band flute") note some are "true fifes" made to play best at very high pitches for fife and drum music, others are meant to play smoothly at their lowest register, identical in range to a tinwhistle. So mind that distinction and ask the experts if you aren't sure which model suits your vision.
Dixon Irish flute duet with cittern (large mandolin cousin)
Modern high-quality Irish keyless piccolo
Trumpet
In my poring over old engravings and photographs, I was struck by how many showed sailors playing various trumpet-type instruments in the late 1800s, which kind of makes sense given the cultural crossover with military Naval traditions, and the volume of a trumpet which helps cut through wind and noise for signaling or dance music. I’m sure there are a zillion good write-ups on buying a basic trumpet (from $100-300), so I’ll leave you go google those or visit Trumpet.
But personally reading up for this article got even me thinking about trying my hand at a little brass. I'm honestly torn between getting one of the novel plastic "brass" instruments made for learners like pTrumpet or jHorn (around $100) because I like innovative design, or carefully buying an okay-quality used brass instrument (after consulting experts) for similar price. But I bet a whaler would've loved a plastic one if they'd been available in 1863.
"Wellerman" on trumpet
STRINGS
Guitar
In my survey of period imagery, I did indeed find some images of men at sea playing guitar, but do bear in mind that guitar in the 1800s and early 1900s was nowhere near as omnipresent as it is today, and in different forms. Plenty of other instruments were far more popular, up until the mid-1900s where guitar really became a go-to choice in the West. Note too that steel strings on guitars, as well as larger body sizes, didn’t show up much until the early 1900s, so for much of this period those who played guitar played smaller body instruments, with gut strings (nowadays nylon strings sound almost like gut but are massively more durable and affordable).
That said, tons of musicians in the Folk Revivals of the 1900s played a modern large guitar with steel strings and sounded great, so it really depends what tradition and sound you want to imitate. Again there are thousands of write-ups on taking up guitar, and plethora of new and used models, steel strings or nylon, all sizes, so I’ll leave that to you to Google or hit up LearnGuitar.
But I would encourage you to keep an open mind to guitar types to get a little more unusual flair in your musical stylings, break away from the crowd a bit. If you’re an experienced strings player, if you want to get that droning and modal sound you hear in shanties, try tuning your current guitar to the Drop D or DADGAD tunings (see DADGAD), also popular in Irish music, and I think you’ll like your results.
And if you’re a novice considering starting on guitar, I’m one of those people who believes that 2 months on a $50 ukulele and then four months on a guitar gets you further ahead than 6 months on a guitar alone, because uke is just so much more accessible for the total beginner. (Plus you’ll end up having a spare uke to carry where your guitar is inconvenient and left at home.) So if you’re considering guitar, check ukulele and ponder whether a uke of some sort could be an affordable and easy initial stage to launch your studies.
Irish jig on guitar in DADGAD tuning
"Drunken Sailor" on nylon-strung guitar
Banjo
The banjo is an instrument developed by American enslaved people, inspired by related instruments they’d known in Africa. By the mid 1800s, the banjo had crossed demographic lines and become hugely popular with European-Americans and spread to other countries, far more popular than the guitar was at the time. It was the go-to plucked string instrument for much of the 1800s.
If you’re looking to take up banjo, know that the banjos of this period had a different sound and playing style than the modern bluegrass instrument, so set aside your stereotypes and listen to some recordings of “Old Time” banjo rather than the bluegrass and country licks you’re used to hearing in soundtracks. These banjos were less piercing, mellower, and a more languid style. And much like on guitars, steel strings were less common, gut being typical and having a much softer sound (today we have nylon options). So when you go reading up “how to choose a banjo” articles or visiting Banjo (or BanjoHangout.com), look for an “open back” banjo rather than one with the heavy metal ring around the head (“resonator”) which makes it louder and sharper for bluegrass.
If you want to get really traditional, and sound softer and be easier on your fingers, spend $9 to get nylon (imitating gut) strings for a much less cliché and smoother sound. (Just note nylon strings stretch like crazy for a few days until they break in and stabilize, be patient.) Speaking of sound, absolutely don’t fall into trying to learn the modern “three-finger” or “Scruggs” style of play, which is a post-WWII styling, but read up on the old “clawhammer” or “frailing” style of play, which sounds entirely different and may pleasantly surprise you if you thought you don’t like banjo.
"Wellerman" on 5-string banjo, played clawhammer style
Nylon strings on a fretless banjo, just to show a very different sound
I will briefly mention some banjo variants other than the 5-string type we’re mostly familiar with. There is also the “tenor banjo” which has four strings, lacking that shortened fifth string off to the side on the currently popular banjos. A tenor banjo is tuned differently: depending on what strings you’re using (and you can swap the strings out for about $10) it’s tuned either like a violin/mandolin, or like a guitaukulele, so those skills cross over well, and is slightly shorter than the common 5-string.
Three Irish reels on a tenor banjo
And if you want a banjo that to one degree isn’t as historically associated with sailors, but to the other is actually surprisingly similar to the smaller and mellower banjos of the early 1800s, there’s the “banjo ukulele” hybrid which is quite affordable and easy to learn.
Frankly, if this is your first instrument and you want banjo, I’d get a banjo ukulele first rather than a 5-string, because they’re just so affordable (decent ones start around $100 new) and handy and easy to learn, and very mellow, not like the cliché sound you’d expect. And though they lack the fifth string, in the last decade or so a ton of YouTube uke experts have been developing the “clawhammer ukulele” style of play. It works impressively well on ukulele or banjo ukulele (which are played the exact same way, same online tutorials apply, they just have a different body and thus sound).
"Leave Her Johnny, Leave Her" on banjo ukulele, clawhammer style
Fiddle
The “fiddle” is physically basically the same as a violin, just played in a folk rather than classical style. There are probably millions of violins bouncing around the world, including plenty of used deals, but you really want to read up on how to find a good deal on a new or used one, because violins are a little finicky. I would also say that unless you’re extremely motivated or getting a Zoom teacher, I wouldn’t advise fiddle as your very first instrument. Because they lack frets and learning to use a bow is its own distinct skill, they have a bit of a steep initial learning curve. So you maybe want to learn a little ukulele or mandolin (which has the same fingering as fiddle) before jumping in. But that said, if you just love fiddle and are ambitious, or already have a little strings background, by all means dive on in. Learn it in standard tuning, but once you get the basics down, try "open tunings" for shanties and the like. Hit up Fiddle for advice.
The fiddle was a hugely popular instrument from the 1700s up to the mid-1900s before falling off sharply heading into the rock ‘n’ roll era. With fiddle you can cover a huge variety of historical musical traditions.
"Blow Boys Blow" on fiddle, while singing (something you don’t see classical violinists do)
Mandolin
This originally Italian instrument took on a wider popularity in the Western world around the late 1800s and early 1900s, again being more popular than guitar in many areas during that period. A mandolin has the chording ability of the guitar but the melodic dexterity of a fiddle, is nice and compact especially compared to a large modern guitar, and can be bought in a passable starter model as low as ~$99. Though if you can stretch to a budget of more like $300, you’ll really appreciate the improvement.
Plenty of used ones floating around, though buy those from a musician or reputable dealer, not from randos on eBay with something they pulled out of a closet from ages ago. Mandolins are under very high tension, and older ones that are low quality or mistreated can be warped or cracked in ways a novice can’t easily notice, but that make them unsuitable to be played. Don't jump on the first "bargain" you see, mando is common enough that you'll see bargains every other day, don't get impulsive, get advice from mandolin players online.
I will note that although mandolin had a narrower time and place of popularity than banjo or especially fiddle, it closely resembles even earlier instruments like the “English guitar”, “cittern” and “Portuguese guitar” that were more widespread, so can serve as a partial stand-in for a number of centuries and locales. Plenty of good information at mandolin awaits you if you want to take up mando.
Beginner mandolins are pretty affordable, and it's not too hard to learn, but it will take time for your hands to adjust and toughen up your finger pads. If you want to try mandolin tuning on an even more affordable instrument and with less string tension, you can get a basic starter ukulele and get Aquila's "Fifths" strings for ukulele (make sure to get the size that corresponds to the size of your uke) for $5-10 and string it in GDAE or CGDA, and then the fingerings would cross directly over to mandolin or mandola.
"Salt Water Shanty" tune on the mandolin
An example of the related "Portuguese guitar", shared between England and Portugal by the sea trade, played on the docks of Lisbon for "fado" music
"Bach 1st Cello Suite" on a ukulele re-strung to CGDA
Ukulele
The ukulele is based on traditional Portuguese small guitar-like instruments, and was introduced to the Hawaiian Islands in 1879 when the SS Ravenscrag brought over Portuguese immigrants in 1879. The instrument caught the imaginations of the local Hawaiians, and some Portuguse woodworkers who'd just arrived capitalized on that trend and began producing a local version. So certainly sailors coming and going from Hawaiian ports had a chance to become familiar with the instrument.
The ukulele is one of the easiest string instruments to play, and the skills cross directly over to guitar and other instruments. If you're new to strings I would highly suggest getting a $50-99 ukulele first to get used to strings, and then decide your best move. As noted above, a uke can be an excellent stand-in for guitar, banjo, or mandolin (especially if restrung in fifths).
"Wellerman" on a regular $40 ukulele, conventional strumming and sounding awesome
"5 Sea Shanties on Ukulele", a really great and crystal-clear tutorial for noobs by Destiny Guerra
Ukulele has a shanty contest recently, might want to check out the submissions by other Redditors of shanties on ukulele
FREE REEDS
The name “free reeds” might sound confusing, but it basically just means things like the accordion and harmonica (which despite looking so different, are close cousins). On common reed instruments like saxophone or oboe, the air tube has one reed (a flexible tongue that produces a note as it vibrates when air flows over it) that makes the core pitch, and by opening holes to change the functional length of the tube you change the note. In contrast, with free reeds, you have an array of individual reeds that always make the same note, and you choose which note(s) to play by directing air over them with a button (accordion) or by moving it against your mouth (harmonica)
Harmonica
I think most folks are familiar with the basic concept of a harmonica, so I’ll just note there are a harmonicas at every price range, all kinds of keys (and ones in minor scales and such), and a lot of harmonica players own a whole stack of them to have a variety. While there are playable ones for like $10, aim for about $25-35 or more for your first one, if able, rather than going totally cheap, just so you aren’t held back as you’re trying to learn. There are a ton of free harmonica tutorials online, and books you can buy, and harmonica to advise, so you can’t go too wrong.
The modern harmonica was invented in the 1800s (based in concept on centuries-old instruments of Southeast Asia encountered by travelers). Hohner started mass-producing barge-fulls of them in Germany shortly after the American Civil War, and exporting them to the US. While maybe we don’t think of harmonicas as a sailor thing, they were an omnipresent affordable and pocket-sized instruments, surely familiar to sailors of the period.
"Drunken Sailor" on a less-common minor-key harmonica
"Wellerman" tutorial on standard harmonica
Concertina
The association between sailors and concertina is so strong as to be almost cliché, due in large part to Hollywood portrayal, like sea shanty concertinist Alf Edwards cameoing in 1965’s “Moby Dick". The concertina is basically like a small hexagonal accordion, but a simpler and less raucous sound due to (usually) only one reed per note, and every button is an individual note rather than some buttons being chords.
Concertina is pretty intuitive to play, and there are some good free tutorials online. For a novice interested in sea shanties you probably want the “Anglo” style (different notes on push and pull, like a harmonica or melodeon). Commonly people buy the 30-button Anglo, because most concertina buyers play Irish music and you want 30 for that. But for shanties and other simple folk, you can do well with a 20-button (which can also play most Irish), which tend to be a little cheaper. I would really give a pass to the $150-200 China-made ones on Amazon and eBay, and go for at least $299 or so for a new 20b or used 30b. (Or hit up Cnet's sales subforum to ask if anyone has a bargain 20b for a noob).
While Anglo is hands-down the traditional choice of sailors, in the Folk Revivals, for whatever reason (lots of them cheap in pawnshops?) a lot of folk musicians took up the English-system concertina. The English externally looks similar but has the same note on push and pull of the bellows, so totally different playing style. Some of the most famous shanty players of the 1960s-1970s (like the fantastic Alf Edwards mentioned above) played English, which in the actual sailing days was the instrument of the wealthy, not laborers.
But y’all are in luck, because I’m a mod at Concertina and have written a pretty comprehensive Concertina FAQ and Buying Guide for novices, the sub itself can help advise with any questions, and for serious experts or to shop an active buy/sell forum for bargains, visit Concertina.net Forums.
Note for both concertina and melodeon (button accordion), “Appcordions” produces free or cheap apps for your phone or tablet which emulate concertina (Anglo, English, or Duet fingering systems) or button accordion. The apps take a little getting used to, but are fun to try out the concept before committing. Read the instructions or watch a tutorial for each to understand how to emulate bellows direction changes on an app, and they're better on tablet than phone, but passable on phone.
Modern shanty "Grogg Mayles" played on Anglo concertina (note the constant back-forth to change notes)
A. L. Lloyd singing “Off to Sea Once More” backed up by Alf Edwards on English concertina (Lloyd is my favorite shantyman of all time, and Edwards so gorgeous on English that I forgive him the heresy of passing up Anglo)
Melodeon (Button Accordion)
When modern people think “accordion” they tend to think the huge ones with a piano keyboard, such as played by Weird Al. But for much of the 1800s and early 1900s, the dominant accordion was the “melodeon” (Americans tend to call them a “button accordion”) which is generally smaller, and has one, two, or three rows of buttons instead of a piano keyboard. Like the Anglo concertina or the harmonica, a given melodeon button produces a different note when you change air direction, which means that notes that make a chord line up together, making it very intuitive to play.
There are hordes of melodeons on the used market, but ones hauled out of a closet after 40 years of no play can need hundreds of dollars of refurbishment by a skilled technician. So again don’t go buying from randos on eBay, but buy from an actual player, or reputable dealer (many of whom buy the tore-up rando ones cheap on eBay, fix them up and flip them at reasonable prices). Figuring out the good deals can be daunting to a novice, so I went to Melodeon.net and got a detailed discussion going resulting in somewhat of a novice buyer’s guide for sea shanties that you might find easier to digest.
With some hunting around the various reputable dealers, and Melodeon.net’s sales section, you can find a decent melodeon as low as $250-350 (easier still in the UK or EU where melodeon is more common). Also check out the small sub Melodeon (we may add a sticky or wicki to link dealers of affordable refurbished button accordions). Fortunately shanty players are less picky about specific keys and models, so can get some good deals on less-fashionable variants other musicians are slow to buy.
High Barbary on 2.5-row melodeon, voice and fiddle
"Bully in the Alley" tutorial on 2-row D/G melodeon
Addendum: “Toy” Accordions (Melodeons)
I will address one kind of intriguing and highly affordable option for learning the basics on melodeon. There’s a little 7-button job called a “toy accordion” made in China (the button kind, not piano kind), sold on all the major online retailers. It isn’t so much really a "toy" as it is a small functional instrument but of kinda middling materials and iffy quality control, but it is a genuine musical instrument. Funnily enough, a small and shoddy mass-produced melodeon was exactly what laborers and sailors of the mid to late 1800s played, churned out of factories in Germany at prices so low they were practically disposable. Ironically the “toy” is arguably the historically authentic option, in spirit.
I don’t want to sound like I’m shilling for Amazon, I don’t even have affiliate links to them on my YouTube channel (maybe someday), but I’m telling you now that Amazon or equivalent is a good place to get a toy accordion. That way you can buy a model and from a seller with the best reviews, and (this is vital) one with “free returns”. The QC on these is iffy, so if you get a lemon it’s great to be able to put it right back in the box, click “return” on the app, and it gets picked up off your porch or you drop it off at a local business that processes Amazon returns. And if you like you can even just re-order it with your refund until they get it right.
These “toys” run about $20-40 (I just bought an EastaMugig, and it seems pretty decent and ready to tweak), so just pick one with good reviews, ensure it has free returns, and give it a whirl. Or if you really want to cut to the chase, there are accordion “fettlers” (repairers) who will just gut a toy for you and put quality reeds in it. Currently Smythe’s Accordions is the main shop I know of doing this in the US, and will put in quality reeds in the key of your choice, into a Russian toy accordion (better quality), if you want to spend $200.
Now, if you get one into your paws that plays okay and you want to keep it, I suggest immediately opening it up and making some minor tweaks. This is one of those things all the melodeon folks casually mention and afaik nobody has bothered to make a proper tutorial on (I hope to shortly for my YouTube channel), but you can make these substantially better with very little skill. Basically put, you got seven buttons, with two notes per button, and two reeds per note to give it a tremolo/echo effect. The issue is those doubled reeds use up a lot of air, and your bellows are small, and one reed will always be more in-tune than the other. So you get some really basic tools and masking tape, pour a beer or soda, carefully open it (they’re pretty sturdy if you get a good one) and identify the two reeds for each note, lay down masking tape along one to silence it. While you’re in there, if you can identify any reeds that aren’t sounding properly, they’re probably clogged with dust, and you can google up how to carefully slide something thin like a dollar bill under the tongue to knock the dust loose and allow it to sound. Tape off one of each pair, assemble it and try it, and if a given note (now one reed per note) sounds off, make a note of which, disassemble and switch the tape from the other reed and see if the other one sounds better.
It’ll take some futzing, but no major skill and no permanent changes (do it carefully so you can still return it if it just won’t shape up). If you get it right, now it’ll be using half as much air so way easier to play, and if you like there are many other little tweaks to adjust button play, fix bellows leaks, and all that, all pretty low-skill. But fundamentally for $20-40 you can have a kinda shoddy yet effective little melodeon, much like the sailors of old, on which you can accompany sea songs.
Drunken Sailor on a decent yet stock toy accordion
Irish polkas on a toy accordion that’s been fitted with quality reeds
PERCUSSION
Looking at old sailor imagery, you generally see small snare drums and bass drums, and there seems to be a large crossover between those on civilian ships and similar ones played in the British and American navies of the era. If you’re a real stickler you can get “rope-tuned” old-school wooden snare and small bass drums (sold for fife and drum reenactors), or make do with modern used marching-band instruments.
I do want to note there is one kind of drum that’s relatively recent in tradition and wouldn’t really have been played by shanty-era sailors, but sounds absolutely amazing with shanties if you aren’t a stickler: the Irish bodhrán. It’s a relatively shallow circular shell with one drum head, held in one hand and the other hands holds a double-headed stick (like a little kayak paddle) and virtuosically skips it off the drum head in rhythmic patterns. It's pretty cool, but if you get one, learn it proper because eager noobs not bothering to learn skill and just whacking on it are a cliche in the Irish trad scene. Bodhran is tiny but has some good links, and you can always ask and see who answers.
Daniel Payne of Newfoundland sings “Wind Through the Window” while backing himself on bodhrán
NOT TRADITIONAL SAILOR INSTRUMENTS, BUT WOULD SOUND AWESOME WITH SHANTIES
I want to briefly discuss one instrument from each category that aren’t strictly historical to seafarers, but really fit in with the spirit of shanties. These would be great retcons, and one very modern wildcard at the end.
Appalachian/Mountain dulcimer
The dulcimer was likely a French or German instrument acquired by the rural folks in the Appalachian mountains of the US, and worked into the local tradition due to its simplicity. It’s a long wooden box played in the lap, tuned to open tunings, with only partial fretting, which makes it ridiculously easy to learn and accompany yourself on. I like to joke that it's the "Celtic sitar."
I taught quite a few workshops on the dulcimer for groups, and it’s about one of the easiest fretted string instruments to learn. They’re pretty affordable (you can get cardboard-bodied [seriously, they work] ones around $50, basic wooden ones around $100, ask around at dulcimer) and they have that droning and dark sound that would go great with shanties.
"Skye Boat Song" on dulcimer
Udu or Ibo drum
This percussion instrument, originating in West Africa, is a clay pot (some modern makers use synthetics) that is drummed upon, and capable of some really cool percussive sounds. Can produce a surprising number of tonal effects, I think of it as the "African tabla." Runs about $100+ for the basic synthetic models by Meinl, which are lighter and more durable than ceramic. LP makes durable ceramic ones from about $75. See the very tiny sub Udu for more info, or ask the larger community at drums.
Udu/Ibo drum solo
Bagpipe
Check your stereotypes, the Great Highland bagpipe associated with marching around in kilts (which is awesome in its own way) is only one of about 100 kinds of bagpipes, from Ireland to India and Sweden down to Libya. The Highland Pipe is loud and piercing, so not really great vocal accompaniment, but among the many other pipes are several which play at an indoor volume and lower pitch.
Among the ones I’d most recommend to someone starting pipes, in terms of affordability (roughly around $400-$500 for basic ones of these three, some bargains come in lower), availability, volume, compactness, versatility, etc. would be the Scottish Smallpipes (quieter and a full octave deeper in pitch than Highland), the Swedish bagpipes, and the German hümmelchen.
More than any other instrument on this list, for bagpipes I urge you to beware "too good to be true" deals. The reason is there is one specific outfit in Pakistan that has been turning out virtually unplayable bagpipes for export for decades, and they're all over Amazon and eBay for $100-200. They are not "well, I'll try a cheapie first and see if I want to get a nice one", they are total garbage, and the company is run by jerks because they could make a serviceable pipe in Pakistan by paying their workers 10% more and instead opt to turn hopeful noobies off piping forever with a "maybe it's a good starter" that's just trash. There are definitely good deals in piping (mainly some innovators working in synthetics, and some craftsmen in Eastern Europe with low costs of living), but the specific Pakistan pipes exported by a certain cynical company are omnipresent and a total waste. But the good news is with the slightest research you can avoid them and get some good starter pipes at reasonable price.
Give those three types of bagpipes (or others too) a listen, see what jumps out at you, drop by Bagpipes to discuss.
"Mingulay Boat Song" on Scottish smallpipes (bellows blown so the piper has breath to sing)
"Polska efter Nedergårds Lars" on Swedish bagpipes
"A Cascarexa" (Galician waltz) on hümmelchen
Electronic Instruments (maybe on your tablet or even phone to be cheap)
I’m sure many of you have seen techno remixes of "Wellerman" and whatnot, so though clearly in history those far post-date the shanty era, they do sound awfully cool (in some cases). So don’t be too shy to lay down some drum and bass lines and sing over them. There are various electronic boxes and knobs you can buy to do so, but these days a lot of what used to be $500 of fancy electronics are now emulated on your phone or tablet. Go mess with the free music apps, or read reviews and pay $10 for a good one, and get some beats going.
If you want to try out a free iOS app that's pretty intuitive for making beats, as a total novice in electronic music I've enjoyed the free phone app Figure.
Korg iKaossilator laying down drum and bass lines
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